CAR Carolina Panthers@TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14–16 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers won
2026-01-03 · 2025 Regular Week 18
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Total Hair-Raising Index Log-Loss Adjusted
Raw THRILLA = Raw GEI x Raw Comeback. Raw THRILLA for this game is 2.40 which ranks in the 31.4 percentile.
THRILLA
31percentile
Raw Score: 2.40
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Game Excitement Index
Sums every play's swing in win probability across the whole game. Raw GEI for this game is 3.16, which ranks in the 43.6 percentile.
GEI
44percentile
Raw Score: 3.16
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Comeback Score
How steep a hole the winning team climbed out of, calculated as -log2(p), where p is the winning team's lowest win probability at any point in the game. For this game, Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell to a 59.1% chance of winning, corresponding to a comeback score of 0.76 which ranks in the 22.9 percentile.
Comeback
23percentile
Raw Score: 0.76
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Audience Score
The audience score for this game was 11.70 which ranks in the 25.0 percentile. It was calculated as follows:
- One-possession game (final margin ≤ 8): 2pts
- Explosive plays (20+ yards): 7 × 0.5pts = 3.5pts
- Turnovers: 4 × 0.75pts = 3pts
- Sacks: 2 × 0.1pts = 0.2pts
- Touchdowns: 3 × 1pts = 3pts
Total: 11.7pts
Learn more →Audience
25percentile
Raw Score: 11.70
Spread
TB -3
O/U 43.5
TB
CAR
Biggest Play
Q4 11:15 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +12.6%
Win probability: TB 77.8%
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
Game Log
| Qtr | Clock | Score | Down & Distance | Yardline | Play | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | — | CAR 0–TB 0 | — | CAR 35 | 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to TB 8. 44-S.Tucker to TB 26 for 18 yards (48-T.Incoom). TB-3-A.Walker was injured during the play. | TB +0.2% |
| Q1 | 14:56 | CAR 0–TB 0 | 1st & 10 | TB 26 | (14:56) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 35 for 9 yards (2-M.Jackson). | TB +4.0% |
| Q1 | 14:13 | CAR 0–TB 0 | 2nd & 1 | TB 35 | (14:13) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 38 for 3 yards (11-N.Scourton). | CAR +1.6% |
| Q1 | 13:35 | CAR 0–TB 0 | 1st & 10 | TB 38 | (13:35) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at CAR 49 for 13 yards. | CAR +1.4% |
| Q1 | 12:55 | CAR 0–TB 0 | 1st & 10 | CAR 49 | (12:55) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 43 for 6 yards (94-A.Robinson; 7-T.Moehrig). | TB +1.1% |
| Q1 | 12:18 | CAR 0–TB 0 | 2nd & 4 | CAR 43 | (12:18) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 41 for 2 yards (94-A.Robinson; 95-D.Brown). | CAR +0.9% |
| Q1 | 11:49 | CAR 0–TB 0 | 3rd & 2 | CAR 41 | (11:49) (No Huddle) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 37 for 4 yards (2-M.Jackson; 11-N.Scourton). | TB +2.6% |
| Q1 | 11:05 | CAR 0–TB 0 | 1st & 10 | CAR 37 | (11:05) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CAR 28 for 9 yards (40-K.Barnes; 95-D.Brown). | TB +3.3% |
| Q1 | 10:16 | CAR 0–TB 0 | 2nd & 1 | CAR 28 | (10:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton to CAR 18 for 10 yards (40-K.Barnes; 52-T.Gipson). | TB +0.3% |
| Q1 | 9:35 | CAR 0–TB 6 | 1st & 10 | CAR 18 | (9:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | TB +5.6% |
| Q1 | — | CAR 0–TB 7 | — | CAR 15 | 4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. | TB +0.1% |
| Q1 | — | CAR 0–TB 7 | — | TB 35 | 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35. | CAR +1.5% |
| Q1 | 9:31 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 1st & 10 | CAR 35 | (9:31) 5-R.Dowdle right tackle to CAR 35 for no gain (50-V.Vea). PENALTY on TB-95-E.Roberts, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35. | CAR +2.0% |
| Q1 | 9:02 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 1st & 10 | MID 50 | (9:02) 5-R.Dowdle right tackle to CAR 48 for -2 yards (8-S.Dennis). | TB +2.6% |
| Q1 | 8:22 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 2nd & 12 | CAR 48 | (8:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard to 50 for 2 yards (5-H.Reddick; 31-A.Winfield). | TB +0.9% |
| Q1 | 7:38 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 3rd & 10 | MID 50 | (7:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 17-X.Legette (31-A.Winfield). | TB +1.9% |
| Q1 | 7:32 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 4th & 10 | MID 50 | (7:32) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. | TB +1.0% |
| Q1 | 7:24 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 1st & 10 | TB 20 | (7:24) 1-R.White left guard to TB 22 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 94-A.Robinson). | CAR +0.4% |
| Q1 | 6:45 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 2nd & 8 | TB 22 | (6:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 26 for 4 yards (2-M.Jackson). | TB +0.8% |
| Q1 | 6:05 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 3rd & 4 | TB 26 | (6:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at TB 47 for 21 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade). Penalty on CAR-26-C.Smith-Wade, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. | TB +4.5% |
| Q1 | 5:43 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 1st & 10 | TB 47 | (5:43) 1-R.White left tackle to TB 48 for 1 yard (21-N.Scott; 40-K.Barnes). | CAR +2.4% |
| Q1 | 4:59 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 2nd & 9 | TB 48 | (4:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 7-B.Irving pushed ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). | TB +4.3% |
| Q1 | 4:17 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 1st & 10 | CAR 39 | (4:17) 15-T.Johnson left end to CAR 34 for 5 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). | CAR +1.8% |
| Q1 | 3:33 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 2nd & 5 | CAR 34 | (3:33) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right tackle ran ob at CAR 26 for 8 yards (2-M.Jackson). PENALTY on CAR-2-M.Jackson, Taunting, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 26. | TB +3.1% |
| Q1 | 2:59 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 1st & 10 | CAR 13 | (2:59) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 87-P.Durham. | CAR +1.0% |
| Q1 | 2:51 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 2nd & 10 | CAR 13 | (2:51) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 11 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown). | CAR +1.0% |
| Q1 | 2:10 | CAR 0–TB 7 | 3rd & 8 | CAR 11 | (2:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (22-L.Ransom). | CAR +2.0% |
| Q1 | 2:01 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 4th & 8 | CAR 11 | (2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. | CAR +1.3% |
| Q1 | — | CAR 0–TB 10 | — | TB 35 | 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35. | CAR +1.2% |
| Q1 | 1:57 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | CAR 35 | (1:57) 9-B.Young pass short left to 87-B.Tremayne pushed ob at TB 45 for 20 yards (31-A.Winfield). | CAR +0.5% |
| Q1 | 1:18 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | TB 45 | (1:18) PENALTY on CAR-68-D.Lewis, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 45 - No Play. | TB +1.4% |
| Q1 | 1:01 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 1st & 15 | MID 50 | (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to TB 45 for 5 yards (5-H.Reddick). | CAR +0.7% |
| Q1 | 0:19 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 2nd & 10 | TB 45 | (:19) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to TB 43 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby). | TB +1.2% |
| Q2 | 15:00 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 3rd & 8 | TB 43 | (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 4-T.McMillan. | TB +1.6% |
| Q2 | 14:58 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 4th & 8 | TB 43 | (14:58) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TB 43 - No Play. | TB +1.4% |
| Q2 | 14:58 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 4th & 13 | TB 48 | (14:58) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to TB 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-A.Evans. | CAR +2.3% |
| Q2 | 14:48 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | TB 6 | (14:48) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 9 for 3 yards (95-D.Brown; 48-T.Incoom). | TB +0.4% |
| Q2 | 14:05 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 2nd & 7 | TB 9 | (14:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Irving. | CAR +0.8% |
| Q2 | 14:02 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 3rd & 7 | TB 9 | (14:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 11-J.McMillan to TB 20 for 11 yards (2-M.Jackson; 22-L.Ransom). | TB +2.0% |
| Q2 | 13:16 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | TB 20 | (13:16) 1-R.White right end to TB 23 for 3 yards (21-N.Scott). | TB +0.5% |
| Q2 | 12:32 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 2nd & 7 | TB 23 | (12:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton. | CAR +0.2% |
| Q2 | 12:28 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 3rd & 7 | TB 23 | (12:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 56-C.Rozeboom at TB 39. 56-C.Rozeboom to TB 19 for 20 yards (13-M.Evans). | CAR +6.9% |
| Q2 | 12:18 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | TB 19 | (12:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 11 yards (23-T.Smith; 21-B.Morrison). | CAR +1.4% |
| Q2 | 11:35 | CAR 0–TB 10 | 1st & 8 | TB 8 | (11:35) 30-C.Hubbard left end to TB 8 for no gain (54-L.David). | TB +0.4% |
| Q2 | 10:56 | CAR 6–TB 10 | 2nd & 8 | TB 8 | (10:56) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | CAR +7.4% |
| Q2 | — | CAR 7–TB 10 | — | TB 15 | 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. | CAR +0.1% |
| Q2 | — | CAR 7–TB 10 | — | CAR 35 | 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to TB 4. 44-S.Tucker to TB 22 for 18 yards (55-M.Njongmeta). FUMBLES (55-M.Njongmeta), recovered by TB-38-R.Wisdom at TB 26. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 25. | CAR +0.7% |
| Q2 | 10:44 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | TB 15 | (10:44) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 11 for -4 yards (3-P.Umanmielen). | CAR +3.2% |
| Q2 | 10:02 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 2nd & 14 | TB 11 | (10:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 15 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott). | TB +0.7% |
| Q2 | 9:19 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 3rd & 10 | TB 15 | (9:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 1-R.White to TB 26 for 11 yards (21-N.Scott). | TB +5.5% |
| Q2 | 8:36 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | TB 26 | (8:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 26 for no gain (3-P.Umanmielen; 95-D.Brown). | CAR +1.5% |
| Q2 | 7:55 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 2nd & 10 | TB 26 | (7:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to TB 33 for 7 yards (98-D.Wonnum). | TB +2.0% |
| Q2 | 7:12 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 3rd & 3 | TB 33 | (7:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to TB 44 for 11 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade). | TB +3.0% |
| Q2 | 6:31 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | TB 44 | (6:31) 44-S.Tucker right tackle to TB 40 for -4 yards (97-B.Brown). | CAR +2.8% |
| Q2 | 5:53 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 2nd & 14 | TB 40 | (5:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield to TB 35 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TB 35. 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 39 for -1 yards (sack split by 40-K.Barnes and 11-N.Scourton). CAR-97-B.Brown was injured during the play. | CAR +2.0% |
| Q2 | 5:09 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 3rd & 15 | TB 39 | (5:09) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to TB 44 for 5 yards (7-T.Moehrig). | CAR +3.4% |
| Q2 | 4:30 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 4th & 10 | TB 44 | (4:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CAR 13, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 16 for 3 yards (48-J.Gray). | CAR +1.4% |
| Q2 | 4:21 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | CAR 16 | (4:21) 5-R.Dowdle right tackle to CAR 18 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby). | TB +3.0% |
| Q2 | 3:36 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 2nd & 8 | CAR 18 | (3:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 32 for 14 yards (54-L.David). | CAR +4.4% |
| Q2 | 2:56 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | CAR 32 | (2:56) 9-B.Young pass short left to 15-Ji.Horn ran ob at CAR 47 for 15 yards. | CAR +1.6% |
| Q2 | 2:20 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | CAR 47 | (2:20) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to TB 49 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith). | TB +0.0% |
| Q2 | 2:00 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 2nd & 6 | TB 49 | (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 82-T.Tremble [94-C.Kancey]. | TB +2.3% |
| Q2 | 1:56 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 3rd & 6 | TB 49 | (1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 42. 25-J.Parrish ran ob at TB 42 for no gain. | TB +6.6% |
| Q2 | 1:51 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | TB 42 | (1:51) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 49 for 7 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade; 95-D.Brown). | TB +0.8% |
| Q2 | 1:15 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 2nd & 3 | TB 49 | (1:15) 44-S.Tucker right end to TB 47 for -2 yards (7-T.Moehrig). | CAR +1.9% |
| Q2 | 0:31 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 3rd & 5 | TB 47 | (:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at CAR 31 for 22 yards (21-N.Scott) [94-A.Robinson]. | TB +8.5% |
| Q2 | 0:18 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | CAR 31 | (:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to CAR 25 for 6 yards (98-D.Wonnum; 21-N.Scott). | TB +1.4% |
| Q2 | — | CAR 7–TB 10 | — | CAR 31 | Timeout #1 by CAR at 00:18. | +0.0% |
| Q2 | 0:13 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 2nd & 4 | CAR 25 | (:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 20 for 5 yards (11-N.Scourton). | CAR +0.7% |
| Q2 | — | CAR 7–TB 10 | — | CAR 25 | Timeout #1 by TB at 00:13. | +0.0% |
| Q2 | 0:09 | CAR 7–TB 10 | 1st & 10 | CAR 20 | (:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CAR 18 for 2 yards (98-D.Wonnum). | TB +0.1% |
| Q2 | — | CAR 7–TB 10 | — | CAR 20 | Timeout #2 by TB at 00:09. | +0.0% |
| Q2 | 0:05 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 8 | CAR 18 | (:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on CAR, Illegal Formation, declined. | CAR +2.0% |
| Q2 | — | CAR 7–TB 13 | — | CAR 18 | Timeout #3 by TB at 00:05. | +0.0% |
| Q2 | — | CAR 7–TB 13 | — | TB 35 | 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35. | CAR +2.0% |
| Q2 | 0:02 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | CAR 35 | (:02) 9-B.Young kneels to CAR 34 for -1 yards. | TB +3.6% |
| Q3 | — | CAR 7–TB 13 | — | TB 35 | 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35. | CAR +1.3% |
| Q3 | 15:00 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | CAR 35 | (15:00) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 39 for 4 yards (54-L.David; 0-Y.Diaby). | TB +1.1% |
| Q3 | 14:23 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 6 | CAR 39 | (14:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker ran ob at CAR 43 for 4 yards. | TB +0.1% |
| Q3 | 13:46 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 3rd & 2 | CAR 43 | (13:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker to CAR 44 for 1 yard (29-C.Izien). | TB +3.4% |
| Q3 | 13:10 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 4th & 1 | CAR 44 | (13:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 47 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea). | CAR +4.4% |
| Q3 | 12:32 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | CAR 47 | (12:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right. | TB +1.2% |
| Q3 | 12:28 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 10 | CAR 47 | (12:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 34 for 19 yards (21-B.Morrison). | CAR +5.2% |
| Q3 | 11:45 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | TB 34 | (11:45) 9-B.Young FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 41, recovered by CAR-5-R.Dowdle at TB 41. | TB +4.1% |
| Q3 | 11:15 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 17 | TB 41 | (11:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 84-M.Evans. | TB +1.8% |
| Q3 | 11:11 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 3rd & 17 | TB 41 | (11:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to TB 36 for 5 yards (54-L.David). | TB +0.6% |
| Q3 | 10:31 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 4th & 12 | TB 36 | (10:31) 10-R.Fitzgerald 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. | TB +3.3% |
| Q3 | 10:27 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | TB 44 | (10:27) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 48 for 4 yards (95-D.Brown). | TB +1.2% |
| Q3 | 9:45 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 6 | TB 48 | (9:45) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 44 for -4 yards (7-T.Moehrig). | CAR +2.8% |
| Q3 | 9:03 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 3rd & 10 | TB 44 | (9:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to CAR 48 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 21-N.Scott). | TB +0.6% |
| Q3 | 8:14 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 4th & 2 | CAR 48 | (8:14) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 48 - No Play. | CAR +1.5% |
| Q3 | 8:14 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 4th & 7 | TB 47 | (8:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CAR 7, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne. | TB +2.4% |
| Q3 | 8:08 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | CAR 7 | (8:08) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 6 for -1 yards (0-Y.Diaby, 90-L.Hall). | TB +0.8% |
| Q3 | 7:27 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 11 | CAR 6 | (7:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 6 - No Play. | CAR +1.9% |
| Q3 | 7:21 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | CAR 11 | (7:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 24 for 13 yards (8-S.Dennis). | CAR +1.6% |
| Q3 | 6:40 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | CAR 24 | (6:40) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 29 for 5 yards (95-E.Roberts). | TB +0.1% |
| Q3 | 6:03 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 5 | CAR 29 | (6:03) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 32 for 3 yards (31-A.Winfield; 96-G.Gaines). | TB +1.9% |
| Q3 | 5:18 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 3rd & 2 | CAR 32 | (5:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to TB 36 for 32 yards (21-B.Morrison). PENALTY on CAR-4-T.McMillan, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 32 - No Play. | TB +1.9% |
| Q3 | 4:44 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 3rd & 12 | CAR 22 | (4:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left. | TB +2.7% |
| Q3 | 4:37 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 4th & 12 | CAR 22 | (4:37) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson. | CAR +2.4% |
| Q3 | 4:30 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | TB 31 | (4:30) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at TB 39 for 8 yards (52-T.Gipson). | TB +2.2% |
| Q3 | 3:54 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 2 | TB 39 | (3:54) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 42 for 3 yards (95-D.Brown). | TB +0.2% |
| Q3 | 3:15 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | TB 42 | (3:15) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 48 for 6 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade). | CAR +0.3% |
| Q3 | 2:39 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 4 | TB 48 | (2:39) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 49 for 3 yards (95-D.Brown). | TB +0.2% |
| Q3 | 2:11 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 3rd & 1 | CAR 49 | (2:11) (No Huddle) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CAR 48 for 1 yard (2-M.Jackson). | TB +1.0% |
| Q3 | 1:28 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | CAR 48 | (1:28) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Otton. PENALTY on CAR-21-N.Scott, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 48 - No Play. | TB +1.4% |
| Q3 | 1:19 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 1st & 10 | CAR 35 | (1:19) 44-S.Tucker left guard to CAR 36 for -1 yards (40-K.Barnes, 95-D.Brown). | CAR +0.6% |
| Q3 | 0:37 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 2nd & 11 | CAR 36 | (:37) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to CAR 33 for 3 yards (93-L.Ray; 11-N.Scourton). | TB +0.0% |
| Q4 | 15:00 | CAR 7–TB 13 | 3rd & 8 | CAR 33 | (15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left guard to CAR 30 for 3 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). | CAR +2.1% |
| Q4 | 14:17 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 4th & 5 | CAR 30 | (14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. | TB +2.7% |
| Q4 | — | CAR 7–TB 16 | — | TB 35 | 4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35. | CAR +1.2% |
| Q4 | 14:12 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | CAR 35 | (14:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker to CAR 38 for 3 yards (54-L.David). | TB +0.2% |
| Q4 | 13:33 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 2nd & 7 | CAR 38 | (13:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 5-R.Dowdle to TB 37 for 25 yards (54-L.David). | CAR +4.8% |
| Q4 | 12:46 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | TB 37 | (12:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-X.Legette pushed ob at TB 32 for 5 yards (25-J.Parrish). | TB +1.0% |
| Q4 | 12:04 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 2nd & 5 | TB 32 | (12:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Coker. | TB +1.7% |
| Q4 | 12:00 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 3rd & 5 | TB 32 | (12:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette to TB 20 for 12 yards (23-T.Smith). | CAR +5.4% |
| Q4 | 11:15 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | TB 20 | (11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29. | TB +12.6% |
| Q4 | 11:07 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | TB 29 | (11:07) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 33 for 4 yards (40-K.Barnes). | TB +0.3% |
| Q4 | 10:23 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 2nd & 6 | TB 33 | (10:23) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (21-N.Scott). | TB +1.9% |
| Q4 | 9:40 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | MID 50 | (9:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 47 for 3 yards (21-N.Scott). | CAR +0.2% |
| Q4 | 8:59 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 2nd & 7 | CAR 47 | (8:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to CAR 39 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). | TB +2.9% |
| Q4 | 8:20 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | CAR 39 | (8:20) 1-R.White up the middle to CAR 37 for 2 yards (92-C.Jackson; 94-A.Robinson). | TB +0.0% |
| Q4 | 7:38 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 2nd & 8 | CAR 37 | (7:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to CAR 25 for 12 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). | TB +1.4% |
| Q4 | 6:52 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | CAR 25 | (6:52) PENALTY on TB-88-C.Otton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 25 - No Play. | CAR +0.4% |
| Q4 | 6:52 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 15 | CAR 30 | (6:52) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right tackle to CAR 23 for 7 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). | TB +0.4% |
| Q4 | 6:12 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 2nd & 8 | CAR 23 | (6:12) 1-R.White left tackle to CAR 20 for 3 yards (98-D.Wonnum). | TB +0.0% |
| Q4 | 5:29 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 3rd & 5 | CAR 20 | (5:29) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CAR 16 for 4 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton (56-C.Rozeboom). | CAR +0.8% |
| Q4 | 5:18 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 4th & 5 | CAR 20 | (5:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-C.Jackson), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. | CAR +4.0% |
| Q4 | 5:12 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | CAR 28 | (5:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-X.Legette to CAR 33 for 5 yards (29-C.Izien). | TB +0.7% |
| Q4 | 4:42 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 2nd & 5 | CAR 33 | (4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (23-T.Smith). | CAR +1.5% |
| Q4 | 4:36 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | MID 50 | (4:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 5-R.Dowdle to CAR 45 for -5 yards (50-V.Vea). | TB +3.1% |
| Q4 | 4:01 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 2nd & 15 | CAR 45 | (4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left. | TB +0.9% |
| Q4 | 3:55 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 3rd & 15 | CAR 45 | (3:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 87-B.Tremayne to TB 48 for 7 yards (23-T.Smith). | TB +0.5% |
| Q4 | 3:10 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 4th & 8 | TB 48 | (3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish). | CAR +11.7% |
| Q4 | 2:36 | CAR 7–TB 16 | 1st & 8 | TB 8 | (2:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right. | TB +2.5% |
| Q4 | 2:31 | CAR 13–TB 16 | 2nd & 8 | TB 8 | (2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | CAR +7.2% |
| Q4 | — | CAR 14–TB 16 | — | TB 15 | 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. | CAR +0.1% |
| Q4 | — | CAR 14–TB 16 | — | CAR 35 | 10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to TB 8. 44-S.Tucker to TB 29 for 21 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 22-L.Ransom). | TB +1.2% |
| Q4 | 2:23 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | TB 29 | (2:23) 77-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 32 for 3 yards (7-T.Moehrig; 2-M.Jackson). | TB +5.6% |
| Q4 | 2:17 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 2nd & 7 | TB 32 | (2:17) 77-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 35 for 3 yards (94-A.Robinson). | CAR +2.2% |
| Q4 | — | CAR 14–TB 16 | — | TB 32 | Timeout #1 by CAR at 02:17. | +0.0% |
| Q4 | 2:12 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 3rd & 4 | TB 35 | (2:12) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CAR 45 for 20 yards (7-T.Moehrig). | TB +7.9% |
| Q4 | — | CAR 14–TB 16 | — | TB 35 | Timeout #2 by CAR at 02:12. | +0.0% |
| Q4 | 2:00 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | CAR 45 | (2:00) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 43 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown). | TB +1.9% |
| Q4 | 1:56 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 2nd & 8 | CAR 43 | (1:56) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 41 for 2 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 95-D.Brown). | TB +2.1% |
| Q4 | — | CAR 14–TB 16 | — | CAR 43 | Timeout #3 by CAR at 01:56. | +0.0% |
| Q4 | 1:11 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 3rd & 6 | CAR 41 | (1:11) 7-B.Irving left end to CAR 39 for 2 yards (98-D.Wonnum). | TB +1.1% |
| Q4 | — | CAR 14–TB 16 | — | CAR 41 | Timeout #1 by TB at 01:11. | +0.0% |
| Q4 | 0:26 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 4th & 4 | CAR 39 | (:26) (Run formation) PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 39 - No Play. | CAR +1.2% |
| Q4 | 0:26 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 4th & 9 | CAR 44 | (:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 3 for no gain (48-J.Gray). | CAR +5.1% |
| Q4 | — | CAR 14–TB 16 | — | CAR 44 | Timeout #2 by TB at 00:26. | +0.0% |
| Q4 | 0:18 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | CAR 3 | (:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker to CAR 21 for 18 yards (25-J.Parrish). | CAR +1.5% |
| Q4 | 0:04 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 1st & 10 | CAR 21 | (:04) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock. | TB +0.3% |
| Q4 | 0:03 | CAR 14–TB 16 | 2nd & 10 | CAR 21 | (:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by TB-21-B.Morrison at CAR 33. | TB +10.5% |
Q1 · CAR 0–TB 0
TB +0.2%
Win probability: TB 59.6%
10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to TB 8. 44-S.Tucker to TB 26 for 18 yards (48-T.Incoom). TB-3-A.Walker was injured during the play.
Q1 14:56 · CAR 0–TB 0
TB +4.0%
Win probability: TB 59.8%
(14:56) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 35 for 9 yards (2-M.Jackson).
Q1 14:13 · CAR 0–TB 0
CAR +1.6%
Win probability: CAR 36.2%
(14:13) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 38 for 3 yards (11-N.Scourton).
Q1 13:35 · CAR 0–TB 0
CAR +1.4%
Win probability: CAR 37.8%
(13:35) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans ran ob at CAR 49 for 13 yards.
Q1 12:55 · CAR 0–TB 0
TB +1.1%
Win probability: TB 60.8%
(12:55) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 43 for 6 yards (94-A.Robinson; 7-T.Moehrig).
Q1 12:18 · CAR 0–TB 0
CAR +0.9%
Win probability: CAR 38.1%
(12:18) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 41 for 2 yards (94-A.Robinson; 95-D.Brown).
Q1 11:49 · CAR 0–TB 0
TB +2.6%
Win probability: TB 61.0%
(11:49) (No Huddle) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 37 for 4 yards (2-M.Jackson; 11-N.Scourton).
Q1 11:05 · CAR 0–TB 0
TB +3.3%
Win probability: TB 63.6%
(11:05) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to CAR 28 for 9 yards (40-K.Barnes; 95-D.Brown).
Q1 10:16 · CAR 0–TB 0
TB +0.3%
Win probability: TB 66.9%
(10:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton to CAR 18 for 10 yards (40-K.Barnes; 52-T.Gipson).
Q1 9:35 · CAR 0–TB 6
TB +5.6%
Win probability: TB 67.2%
(9:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +0.1%
Win probability: TB 72.8%
4-C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q1 · CAR 0–TB 7
CAR +1.5%
Win probability: CAR 27.0%
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35.
Q1 9:31 · CAR 0–TB 7
CAR +2.0%
Win probability: CAR 28.6%
(9:31) 5-R.Dowdle right tackle to CAR 35 for no gain (50-V.Vea). PENALTY on TB-95-E.Roberts, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35.
Q1 9:02 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +2.6%
Win probability: TB 69.5%
(9:02) 5-R.Dowdle right tackle to CAR 48 for -2 yards (8-S.Dennis).
Q1 8:22 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +0.9%
Win probability: TB 72.1%
(8:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard to 50 for 2 yards (5-H.Reddick; 31-A.Winfield).
Q1 7:38 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +1.9%
Win probability: TB 72.9%
(7:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 17-X.Legette (31-A.Winfield).
Q1 7:32 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +1.0%
Win probability: TB 74.8%
(7:32) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
Q1 7:24 · CAR 0–TB 7
CAR +0.4%
Win probability: CAR 24.2%
(7:24) 1-R.White left guard to TB 22 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown; 94-A.Robinson).
Q1 6:45 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +0.8%
Win probability: TB 75.4%
(6:45) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to TB 26 for 4 yards (2-M.Jackson).
Q1 6:05 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +4.5%
Win probability: TB 76.2%
(6:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at TB 47 for 21 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade). Penalty on CAR-26-C.Smith-Wade, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q1 5:43 · CAR 0–TB 7
CAR +2.4%
Win probability: CAR 19.3%
(5:43) 1-R.White left tackle to TB 48 for 1 yard (21-N.Scott; 40-K.Barnes).
Q1 4:59 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +4.3%
Win probability: TB 78.2%
(4:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 7-B.Irving pushed ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
Q1 4:17 · CAR 0–TB 7
CAR +1.8%
Win probability: CAR 17.5%
(4:17) 15-T.Johnson left end to CAR 34 for 5 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
Q1 3:33 · CAR 0–TB 7
TB +3.1%
Win probability: TB 80.6%
(3:33) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right tackle ran ob at CAR 26 for 8 yards (2-M.Jackson). PENALTY on CAR-2-M.Jackson, Taunting, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 26.
Q1 2:59 · CAR 0–TB 7
CAR +1.0%
Win probability: CAR 16.2%
(2:59) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 87-P.Durham.
Q1 2:51 · CAR 0–TB 7
CAR +1.0%
Win probability: CAR 17.2%
(2:51) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 11 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown).
Q1 2:10 · CAR 0–TB 7
CAR +2.0%
Win probability: CAR 18.2%
(2:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 2-E.Egbuka (22-L.Ransom).
Q1 2:01 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +1.3%
Win probability: CAR 20.2%
(2:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q1 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +1.2%
Win probability: CAR 21.5%
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35.
Q1 1:57 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +0.5%
Win probability: CAR 22.7%
(1:57) 9-B.Young pass short left to 87-B.Tremayne pushed ob at TB 45 for 20 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q1 1:18 · CAR 0–TB 10
TB +1.4%
Win probability: TB 76.8%
(1:18) PENALTY on CAR-68-D.Lewis, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at TB 45 - No Play.
Q1 1:01 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +0.7%
Win probability: CAR 21.9%
(1:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 84-M.Evans to TB 45 for 5 yards (5-H.Reddick).
Q1 0:19 · CAR 0–TB 10
TB +1.2%
Win probability: TB 77.4%
(:19) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to TB 43 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
Q2 15:00 · CAR 0–TB 10
TB +1.6%
Win probability: TB 78.6%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 4-T.McMillan.
Q2 14:58 · CAR 0–TB 10
TB +1.4%
Win probability: TB 80.2%
(14:58) (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at TB 43 - No Play.
Q2 14:58 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +2.3%
Win probability: CAR 18.4%
(14:58) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to TB 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-A.Evans.
Q2 14:48 · CAR 0–TB 10
TB +0.4%
Win probability: TB 79.3%
(14:48) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 9 for 3 yards (95-D.Brown; 48-T.Incoom).
Q2 14:05 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +0.8%
Win probability: CAR 20.3%
(14:05) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Irving.
Q2 14:02 · CAR 0–TB 10
TB +2.0%
Win probability: TB 78.9%
(14:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 11-J.McMillan to TB 20 for 11 yards (2-M.Jackson; 22-L.Ransom).
Q2 13:16 · CAR 0–TB 10
TB +0.5%
Win probability: TB 80.9%
(13:16) 1-R.White right end to TB 23 for 3 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q2 12:32 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +0.2%
Win probability: CAR 18.5%
(12:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton.
Q2 12:28 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +6.9%
Win probability: CAR 18.7%
(12:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle intended for 2-E.Egbuka INTERCEPTED by 56-C.Rozeboom at TB 39. 56-C.Rozeboom to TB 19 for 20 yards (13-M.Evans).
Q2 12:18 · CAR 0–TB 10
CAR +1.4%
Win probability: CAR 25.6%
(12:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 11 yards (23-T.Smith; 21-B.Morrison).
Q2 11:35 · CAR 0–TB 10
TB +0.4%
Win probability: TB 73.0%
(11:35) 30-C.Hubbard left end to TB 8 for no gain (54-L.David).
Q2 10:56 · CAR 6–TB 10
CAR +7.4%
Win probability: CAR 26.6%
(10:56) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +0.1%
Win probability: CAR 34.0%
10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q2 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +0.7%
Win probability: CAR 34.1%
10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 61 yards from CAR 35 to TB 4. 44-S.Tucker to TB 22 for 18 yards (55-M.Njongmeta). FUMBLES (55-M.Njongmeta), recovered by TB-38-R.Wisdom at TB 26. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 25.
Q2 10:44 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +3.2%
Win probability: CAR 34.9%
(10:44) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 11 for -4 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).
Q2 10:02 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +0.7%
Win probability: TB 62.0%
(10:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 15 for 4 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q2 9:19 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +5.5%
Win probability: TB 62.7%
(9:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 1-R.White to TB 26 for 11 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q2 8:36 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +1.5%
Win probability: CAR 31.8%
(8:36) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 26 for no gain (3-P.Umanmielen; 95-D.Brown).
Q2 7:55 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +2.0%
Win probability: TB 66.7%
(7:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White to TB 33 for 7 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q2 7:12 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +3.0%
Win probability: TB 68.7%
(7:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to TB 44 for 11 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
Q2 6:31 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +2.8%
Win probability: CAR 28.3%
(6:31) 44-S.Tucker right tackle to TB 40 for -4 yards (97-B.Brown).
Q2 5:53 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +2.0%
Win probability: CAR 31.1%
(5:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield to TB 35 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at TB 35. 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 39 for -1 yards (sack split by 40-K.Barnes and 11-N.Scourton). CAR-97-B.Brown was injured during the play.
Q2 5:09 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +3.4%
Win probability: CAR 33.1%
(5:09) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right guard to TB 44 for 5 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
Q2 4:30 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +1.4%
Win probability: CAR 36.5%
(4:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to CAR 13, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 16 for 3 yards (48-J.Gray).
Q2 4:21 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +3.0%
Win probability: TB 62.1%
(4:21) 5-R.Dowdle right tackle to CAR 18 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
Q2 3:36 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +4.4%
Win probability: CAR 34.9%
(3:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 32 for 14 yards (54-L.David).
Q2 2:56 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +1.6%
Win probability: CAR 39.3%
(2:56) 9-B.Young pass short left to 15-Ji.Horn ran ob at CAR 47 for 15 yards.
Q2 2:20 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +0.0%
Win probability: TB 59.1%
(2:20) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to TB 49 for 4 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q2 2:00 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +2.3%
Win probability: TB 59.1%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 82-T.Tremble [94-C.Kancey].
Q2 1:56 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +6.6%
Win probability: TB 61.4%
(1:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 4-T.McMillan INTERCEPTED by 25-J.Parrish at TB 42. 25-J.Parrish ran ob at TB 42 for no gain.
Q2 1:51 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +0.8%
Win probability: TB 68.0%
(1:51) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 49 for 7 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade; 95-D.Brown).
Q2 1:15 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +1.9%
Win probability: CAR 31.3%
(1:15) 44-S.Tucker right end to TB 47 for -2 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
Q2 0:31 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +8.5%
Win probability: TB 66.8%
(:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton pushed ob at CAR 31 for 22 yards (21-N.Scott) [94-A.Robinson].
Q2 0:18 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +1.4%
Win probability: TB 75.3%
(:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle to CAR 25 for 6 yards (98-D.Wonnum; 21-N.Scott).
Q2 · CAR 7–TB 10
+0.0%
Timeout #1 by CAR at 00:18.
Q2 0:13 · CAR 7–TB 10
CAR +0.7%
Win probability: CAR 23.3%
(:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 20 for 5 yards (11-N.Scourton).
Q2 · CAR 7–TB 10
+0.0%
Timeout #1 by TB at 00:13.
Q2 0:09 · CAR 7–TB 10
TB +0.1%
Win probability: TB 76.0%
(:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CAR 18 for 2 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q2 · CAR 7–TB 10
+0.0%
Timeout #2 by TB at 00:09.
Q2 0:05 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +2.0%
Win probability: CAR 23.9%
(:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on CAR, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q2 · CAR 7–TB 13
+0.0%
Timeout #3 by TB at 00:05.
Q2 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +2.0%
Win probability: CAR 25.9%
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35.
Q2 0:02 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +3.6%
Win probability: TB 72.1%
(:02) 9-B.Young kneels to CAR 34 for -1 yards.
Q3 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +1.3%
Win probability: CAR 24.4%
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35.
Q3 15:00 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +1.1%
Win probability: TB 74.3%
(15:00) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 39 for 4 yards (54-L.David; 0-Y.Diaby).
Q3 14:23 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +0.1%
Win probability: TB 75.4%
(14:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker ran ob at CAR 43 for 4 yards.
Q3 13:46 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +3.4%
Win probability: TB 75.5%
(13:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 18-J.Coker to CAR 44 for 1 yard (29-C.Izien).
Q3 13:10 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +4.4%
Win probability: CAR 21.1%
(13:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 47 for 3 yards (50-V.Vea).
Q3 12:32 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +1.2%
Win probability: TB 74.5%
(12:32) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right.
Q3 12:28 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +5.2%
Win probability: CAR 24.2%
(12:28) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 34 for 19 yards (21-B.Morrison).
Q3 11:45 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +4.1%
Win probability: TB 70.6%
(11:45) 9-B.Young FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 41, recovered by CAR-5-R.Dowdle at TB 41.
Q3 11:15 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +1.8%
Win probability: TB 74.7%
(11:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 84-M.Evans.
Q3 11:11 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +0.6%
Win probability: TB 76.5%
(11:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to TB 36 for 5 yards (54-L.David).
Q3 10:31 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +3.3%
Win probability: TB 77.0%
(10:31) 10-R.Fitzgerald 54 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q3 10:27 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +1.2%
Win probability: TB 80.4%
(10:27) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 48 for 4 yards (95-D.Brown).
Q3 9:45 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +2.8%
Win probability: CAR 18.5%
(9:45) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 44 for -4 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
Q3 9:03 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +0.6%
Win probability: TB 78.7%
(9:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to CAR 48 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 21-N.Scott).
Q3 8:14 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +1.5%
Win probability: CAR 20.7%
(8:14) (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 48 - No Play.
Q3 8:14 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +2.4%
Win probability: TB 77.8%
(8:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to CAR 7, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-T.Etienne.
Q3 8:08 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +0.8%
Win probability: TB 80.2%
(8:08) 30-C.Hubbard right guard to CAR 6 for -1 yards (0-Y.Diaby, 90-L.Hall).
Q3 7:27 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +1.9%
Win probability: CAR 19.0%
(7:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard. PENALTY on TB-54-L.David, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 6 - No Play.
Q3 7:21 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +1.6%
Win probability: CAR 20.9%
(7:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 24 for 13 yards (8-S.Dennis).
Q3 6:40 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +0.1%
Win probability: TB 77.5%
(6:40) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 29 for 5 yards (95-E.Roberts).
Q3 6:03 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +1.9%
Win probability: TB 77.7%
(6:03) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to CAR 32 for 3 yards (31-A.Winfield; 96-G.Gaines).
Q3 5:18 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +1.9%
Win probability: TB 79.6%
(5:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan to TB 36 for 32 yards (21-B.Morrison). PENALTY on CAR-4-T.McMillan, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 32 - No Play.
Q3 4:44 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +2.7%
Win probability: TB 81.5%
(4:44) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left.
Q3 4:37 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +2.4%
Win probability: CAR 15.8%
(4:37) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.
Q3 4:30 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +2.2%
Win probability: TB 81.7%
(4:30) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka pushed ob at TB 39 for 8 yards (52-T.Gipson).
Q3 3:54 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +0.2%
Win probability: TB 83.9%
(3:54) 7-B.Irving up the middle to TB 42 for 3 yards (95-D.Brown).
Q3 3:15 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +0.3%
Win probability: CAR 15.9%
(3:15) 7-B.Irving right tackle to TB 48 for 6 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
Q3 2:39 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +0.2%
Win probability: TB 83.8%
(2:39) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 49 for 3 yards (95-D.Brown).
Q3 2:11 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +1.0%
Win probability: TB 84.0%
(2:11) (No Huddle) 7-B.Irving left tackle to CAR 48 for 1 yard (2-M.Jackson).
Q3 1:28 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +1.4%
Win probability: TB 84.9%
(1:28) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Otton. PENALTY on CAR-21-N.Scott, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at CAR 48 - No Play.
Q3 1:19 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +0.6%
Win probability: CAR 13.6%
(1:19) 44-S.Tucker left guard to CAR 36 for -1 yards (40-K.Barnes, 95-D.Brown).
Q3 0:37 · CAR 7–TB 13
TB +0.0%
Win probability: TB 85.7%
(:37) (Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to CAR 33 for 3 yards (93-L.Ray; 11-N.Scourton).
Q4 15:00 · CAR 7–TB 13
CAR +2.1%
Win probability: CAR 14.2%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left guard to CAR 30 for 3 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
Q4 14:17 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +2.7%
Win probability: TB 83.7%
(14:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +1.2%
Win probability: CAR 13.7%
4-C.McLaughlin kicks 65 yards from TB 35 to end zone, Touchback to the CAR 35.
Q4 14:12 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +0.2%
Win probability: TB 85.1%
(14:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker to CAR 38 for 3 yards (54-L.David).
Q4 13:33 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +4.8%
Win probability: CAR 14.7%
(13:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 5-R.Dowdle to TB 37 for 25 yards (54-L.David).
Q4 12:46 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +1.0%
Win probability: TB 80.5%
(12:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-X.Legette pushed ob at TB 32 for 5 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q4 12:04 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +1.7%
Win probability: TB 81.5%
(12:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Coker.
Q4 12:00 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +5.4%
Win probability: CAR 16.8%
(12:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 17-X.Legette to TB 20 for 12 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q4 11:15 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +12.6%
Win probability: TB 77.8%
(11:15) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at TB 29.
Q4 11:07 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +0.3%
Win probability: TB 90.4%
(11:07) 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 33 for 4 yards (40-K.Barnes).
Q4 10:23 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +1.9%
Win probability: TB 90.7%
(10:23) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q4 9:40 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +0.2%
Win probability: CAR 7.4%
(9:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving right tackle to CAR 47 for 3 yards (21-N.Scott).
Q4 8:59 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +2.9%
Win probability: TB 92.5%
(8:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to CAR 39 for 8 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
Q4 8:20 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +0.0%
Win probability: TB 95.3%
(8:20) 1-R.White up the middle to CAR 37 for 2 yards (92-C.Jackson; 94-A.Robinson).
Q4 7:38 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +1.4%
Win probability: TB 95.4%
(7:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to CAR 25 for 12 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
Q4 6:52 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +0.4%
Win probability: CAR 3.3%
(6:52) PENALTY on TB-88-C.Otton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 25 - No Play.
Q4 6:52 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +0.4%
Win probability: TB 96.3%
(6:52) (Shotgun) 1-R.White right tackle to CAR 23 for 7 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
Q4 6:12 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +0.0%
Win probability: TB 96.7%
(6:12) 1-R.White left tackle to CAR 20 for 3 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q4 5:29 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +0.8%
Win probability: CAR 3.2%
(5:29) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CAR 16 for 4 yards (56-C.Rozeboom). Carolina challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Otton (56-C.Rozeboom).
Q4 5:18 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +4.0%
Win probability: CAR 4.0%
(5:18) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-C.Jackson), Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Q4 5:12 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +0.7%
Win probability: TB 92.0%
(5:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 17-X.Legette to CAR 33 for 5 yards (29-C.Izien).
Q4 4:42 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +1.5%
Win probability: CAR 7.3%
(4:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q4 4:36 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +3.1%
Win probability: TB 91.2%
(4:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 5-R.Dowdle to CAR 45 for -5 yards (50-V.Vea).
Q4 4:01 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +0.9%
Win probability: TB 94.3%
(4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left.
Q4 3:55 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +0.5%
Win probability: TB 95.2%
(3:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 87-B.Tremayne to TB 48 for 7 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q4 3:10 · CAR 7–TB 16
CAR +11.7%
Win probability: CAR 4.2%
(3:10) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 4-T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q4 2:36 · CAR 7–TB 16
TB +2.5%
Win probability: TB 84.1%
(2:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right.
Q4 2:31 · CAR 13–TB 16
CAR +7.2%
Win probability: CAR 13.4%
(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 18-J.Coker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · CAR 14–TB 16
CAR +0.1%
Win probability: CAR 20.6%
10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q4 · CAR 14–TB 16
TB +1.2%
Win probability: TB 79.3%
10-R.Fitzgerald kicks 57 yards from CAR 35 to TB 8. 44-S.Tucker to TB 29 for 21 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 22-L.Ransom).
Q4 2:23 · CAR 14–TB 16
TB +5.6%
Win probability: TB 80.5%
(2:23) 77-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 32 for 3 yards (7-T.Moehrig; 2-M.Jackson).
Q4 2:17 · CAR 14–TB 16
CAR +2.2%
Win probability: CAR 13.9%
(2:17) 77-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 35 for 3 yards (94-A.Robinson).
Q4 · CAR 14–TB 16
+0.0%
Timeout #1 by CAR at 02:17.
Q4 2:12 · CAR 14–TB 16
TB +7.9%
Win probability: TB 83.8%
(2:12) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CAR 45 for 20 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
Q4 · CAR 14–TB 16
+0.0%
Timeout #2 by CAR at 02:12.
Q4 2:00 · CAR 14–TB 16
TB +1.9%
Win probability: TB 91.8%
(2:00) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 43 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown).
Q4 1:56 · CAR 14–TB 16
TB +2.1%
Win probability: TB 93.6%
(1:56) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 41 for 2 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 95-D.Brown).
Q4 · CAR 14–TB 16
+0.0%
Timeout #3 by CAR at 01:56.
Q4 1:11 · CAR 14–TB 16
TB +1.1%
Win probability: TB 95.8%
(1:11) 7-B.Irving left end to CAR 39 for 2 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
Q4 · CAR 14–TB 16
+0.0%
Timeout #1 by TB at 01:11.
Q4 0:26 · CAR 14–TB 16
CAR +1.2%
Win probability: CAR 3.1%
(:26) (Run formation) PENALTY on TB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 39 - No Play.
Q4 0:26 · CAR 14–TB 16
CAR +5.1%
Win probability: CAR 4.3%
(:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 3 for no gain (48-J.Gray).
Q4 · CAR 14–TB 16
+0.0%
Timeout #2 by TB at 00:26.
Q4 0:18 · CAR 14–TB 16
CAR +1.5%
Win probability: CAR 9.4%
(:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker to CAR 21 for 18 yards (25-J.Parrish).
Q4 0:04 · CAR 14–TB 16
TB +0.3%
Win probability: TB 89.1%
(:04) (No Huddle) 9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.
Q4 0:03 · CAR 14–TB 16
TB +10.5%
Win probability: TB 89.5%
(:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to 4-T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by TB-21-B.Morrison at CAR 33.