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BUF Buffalo Bills@HOU Houston Texans

36–31 · Buffalo Bills won
2026-09-13 · Regular Week 1
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Total Hair-Raising Index Log-Loss Adjusted
Raw THRILLA = Raw GEI x Raw Comeback. Raw THRILLA for this game is 9.48 which ranks in the 72.4 percentile.
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THRILLA
72percentile
Raw Score: 9.48
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Game Excitement Index
Sums every play's swing in win probability across the whole game. Raw GEI for this game is 6.26, which ranks in the 95.2 percentile.
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GEI
95percentile
Raw Score: 6.26
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Comeback Score
How steep a hole the winning team climbed out of, calculated as -log2(p), where p is the winning team's lowest win probability at any point in the game. For this game, Buffalo Bills fell to a 35.0% chance of winning, corresponding to a comeback score of 1.51 which ranks in the 56.6 percentile.
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Comeback
57percentile
Raw Score: 1.51
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Audience Score
The audience score for this game was 20.75 which ranks in the 91.2 percentile. It was calculated as follows:
  • One-possession game (final margin ≤ 8): 2pts
  • Lead changes in final 2 minutes / OT: 1 × 3pts = 3pts
  • Explosive plays (20+ yards): 10 × 0.5pts = 5pts
  • Turnovers: 3 × 0.75pts = 2.25pts
  • Sacks: 5 × 0.1pts = 0.5pts
  • Touchdowns: 8 × 1pts = 8pts
Total: 20.75pts
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Audience
91percentile
Raw Score: 20.75
Spread
BUF -1.5
O/U 44.5
HOU
BUF
Biggest Play
Q4 1:41 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +27.7%
Win probability: BUF 58.5%
BUF3rd & 11 · HOU 34
(1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Game Log
QtrClockScorePoss.Down & DistanceYardlinePlaySwing
Q1—BUF 0–HOU 0BUF—HOU 3515-K.Fairbairn kicks 57 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 8. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 34 for 26 yards (35-J.Hansen; 36-G.Odum).BUF +1.6%
Q114:55BUF 0–HOU 0BUF1st & 10BUF 34(14:55) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 43 for 9 yards (2-C.Bullock).BUF +2.2%
Q114:21BUF 0–HOU 0BUF2nd & 1BUF 43(14:21) 68-T.Grable reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 46 for 3 yards (6-R.Blankenship).BUF +0.8%
Q113:55BUF 0–HOU 0BUF1st & 10BUF 46(13:55) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 43 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock).BUF +2.3%
Q113:18BUF 0–HOU 0BUF1st & 10HOU 43(13:18) 7-R.Davis right guard to HOU 40 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).HOU +0.6%
Q112:39BUF 0–HOU 0BUF2nd & 7HOU 40(12:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to HOU 36 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).HOU +0.1%
Q112:02BUF 0–HOU 0BUF3rd & 3HOU 36(12:02) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 34 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 72-T.Togiai).HOU +4.0%
Q111:18BUF 0–HOU 0BUF4th & 1HOU 34(11:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).HOU +9.9%
Q111:15BUF 0–HOU 0HOU1st & 10HOU 36(11:15) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 37 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard).BUF +1.5%
Q110:36BUF 0–HOU 0HOU2nd & 9HOU 37(10:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 37 - No Play.BUF +2.0%
Q110:17BUF 0–HOU 0HOU2nd & 14HOU 32(10:17) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 34 for 2 yards (8-T.Bernard; 96-D.Walker).BUF +2.4%
Q19:40BUF 0–HOU 0HOU3rd & 12HOU 34(9:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 29 for -5 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at HOU 32.BUF +9.0%
Q19:32BUF 0–HOU 0BUF1st & 10HOU 32(9:32) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (5-J.Pitre; 6-R.Blankenship).HOU +0.3%
Q18:56BUF 0–HOU 0BUF2nd & 6HOU 28(8:56) 17-J.Allen sacked at HOU 34 for -6 yards (90-J.Clowney).HOU +4.7%
Q18:14BUF 0–HOU 0BUF3rd & 12HOU 34(8:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to HOU 33 for 1 yard. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 23 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship).BUF +2.6%
Q17:42BUF 0–HOU 0BUF4th & 1HOU 23(7:42) (Run formation) PENALTY on BUF, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play.HOU +3.1%
Q17:32BUF 3–HOU 0BUF4th & 6HOU 28(7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.BUF +3.1%
Q1—BUF 3–HOU 0HOU—BUF 3516-T.Bass kicks 64 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 1. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 23 yards (83-K.Latu; 55-M.Hoecht).BUF +0.2%
Q17:21BUF 3–HOU 0HOU1st & 10HOU 24(7:21) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (15-G.Rousseau).HOU +0.0%
Q16:43BUF 3–HOU 0HOU2nd & 6HOU 28(6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 37 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard; 24-C.Bishop).HOU +3.0%
Q16:04BUF 3–HOU 0HOU1st & 10HOU 37(6:04) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 44 for 7 yards (8-T.Bernard; 42-D.Williams).HOU +0.0%
Q15:24BUF 3–HOU 0HOU2nd & 3HOU 44(5:24) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 83-M.Klein to BUF 40 for 16 yards (1-M.Hairston).HOU +4.4%
Q14:43BUF 3–HOU 0HOU1st & 10BUF 40(4:43) 4-W.Marks left guard to BUF 36 for 4 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 42-D.Williams).BUF +0.1%
Q14:03BUF 3–HOU 0HOU2nd & 6BUF 36(4:03) 12-N.Collins right end pushed ob at BUF 29 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).HOU +1.5%
Q13:20BUF 3–HOU 0HOU1st & 10BUF 29(3:20) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left end to BUF 27 for 2 yards (97-G.Gaines; 8-T.Bernard).BUF +0.9%
Q12:37BUF 3–HOU 0HOU2nd & 8BUF 27(2:37) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 14-K.Boutte.BUF +2.4%
Q12:30BUF 3–HOU 0HOU3rd & 8BUF 27(2:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at BUF 2 for 25 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).HOU +10.1%
Q11:53BUF 3–HOU 0HOU1st & 2BUF 2(1:53) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to BUF 1 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard, 9-B.Chubb).BUF +1.7%
Q11:15BUF 3–HOU 0HOU2nd & 1BUF 1(1:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 1 for no gain (96-D.Walker; 42-D.Williams).BUF +3.1%
Q10:37BUF 3–HOU 6HOU3rd & 1BUF 1(:37) 32-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.HOU +4.7%
Q1—BUF 3–HOU 7HOU—BUF 1515-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.HOU +0.1%
Q1—BUF 3–HOU 7BUF—HOU 3515-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 38 for 37 yards (22-J.Smith).BUF +3.1%
Q10:25BUF 3–HOU 7BUF1st & 10BUF 38(:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 43 for 19 yards (2-C.Bullock).BUF +3.4%
Q215:00BUF 3–HOU 7BUF1st & 10HOU 43(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right [39-H.To'oTo'o]. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play.HOU +3.3%
Q214:52BUF 3–HOU 7BUF1st & 15HOU 48(14:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Kincaid. Penalty on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.HOU +2.0%
Q214:48BUF 3–HOU 7BUF2nd & 15HOU 48(14:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 32 for 16 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 5-J.Pitre).BUF +7.4%
Q214:07BUF 3–HOU 7BUF1st & 10HOU 32(14:07) 4-J.Cook right end pushed ob at HOU 25 for 7 yards (24-D.Stingley).BUF +1.9%
Q213:32BUF 3–HOU 7BUF2nd & 3HOU 25(13:32) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 21 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).BUF +1.7%
Q212:57BUF 9–HOU 7BUF1st & 10HOU 21(12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.BUF +6.6%
Q2—BUF 10–HOU 7BUF—HOU 1516-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.BUF +0.3%
Q2—BUF 10–HOU 7HOU—BUF 3516-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 25 for 22 yards (44-J.Andreessen).BUF +0.1%
Q212:39BUF 10–HOU 7HOU1st & 10HOU 25(12:39) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 31 for 6 yards (24-C.Bishop).BUF +0.1%
Q211:56BUF 10–HOU 7HOU2nd & 4HOU 31(11:56) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 35 for 4 yards (8-T.Bernard).HOU +2.7%
Q211:15BUF 10–HOU 7HOU1st & 10HOU 35(11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to HOU 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 47-C.Benford). PENALTY on BUF-23-D.Alford, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play.HOU +1.2%
Q210:51BUF 10–HOU 7HOU1st & 10HOU 40(10:51) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz [15-G.Rousseau].BUF +1.9%
Q210:47BUF 10–HOU 7HOU2nd & 10HOU 40(10:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to HOU 38 for -2 yards (96-D.Walker).BUF +3.2%
Q210:06BUF 10–HOU 7HOU3rd & 12HOU 38(10:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to BUF 47 for 15 yards (8-T.Bernard).HOU +6.6%
Q29:18BUF 10–HOU 7HOU1st & 10BUF 47(9:18) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to BUF 41 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht).HOU +0.6%
Q28:41BUF 10–HOU 7HOU2nd & 4BUF 41(8:41) 32-D.Montgomery right end to BUF 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 1-M.Hairston).BUF +0.0%
Q28:01BUF 10–HOU 7HOU3rd & 1BUF 38(8:01) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 36 for 2 yards (97-G.Gaines).HOU +3.5%
Q27:21BUF 10–HOU 7HOU1st & 10BUF 36(7:21) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [15-G.Rousseau].BUF +2.0%
Q2—BUF 10–HOU 7——BUF 36Timeout #1 by HOU at 07:21. +0.0%
Q27:16BUF 10–HOU 7HOU2nd & 10BUF 36(7:16) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 24 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop; 23-D.Alford).HOU +4.4%
Q26:33BUF 10–HOU 7HOU1st & 10BUF 24(6:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 8-C.Stover to BUF 26 for -2 yards (8-T.Bernard) [9-B.Chubb].BUF +4.5%
Q25:49BUF 10–HOU 7HOU2nd & 12BUF 26(5:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 23 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 96-D.Walker).BUF +0.5%
Q25:03BUF 10–HOU 7HOU3rd & 9BUF 23(5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play.HOU +4.8%
Q24:53BUF 10–HOU 13HOU1st & 10BUF 18(4:53) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.HOU +8.3%
Q2—BUF 10–HOU 14HOU—BUF 1515-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.HOU +0.1%
Q2—BUF 10–HOU 14BUF—HOU 3515-K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BUF 35.BUF +2.0%
Q24:48BUF 10–HOU 14BUF1st & 10BUF 35(4:48) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 2-D.Moore to HOU 47 for 18 yards (2-C.Bullock; 3-K.Lassiter).BUF +1.9%
Q24:13BUF 10–HOU 14BUF1st & 10HOU 47(4:13) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play.BUF +17.6%
Q24:05BUF 10–HOU 14BUF1st & 1HOU 1(4:05) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (5-J.Pitre).HOU +1.5%
Q24:02BUF 16–HOU 14BUF2nd & 1HOU 1(4:02) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.BUF +1.0%
Q2—BUF 17–HOU 14BUF—HOU 1516-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.BUF +0.3%
Q2—BUF 17–HOU 14HOU—BUF 3516-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 0. 11-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 26 yards (99-T.Parker; 56-J.Solomon).BUF +0.2%
Q23:51BUF 17–HOU 14HOU1st & 10HOU 26(3:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 17-J.Wayne pushed ob at HOU 33 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play.HOU +0.7%
Q23:33BUF 17–HOU 14HOU1st & 10HOU 31(3:33) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to HOU 36 for 5 yards (99-T.Parker; 24-C.Bishop). BUF-24-C.Bishop was injured during the play.HOU +3.2%
Q23:05BUF 17–HOU 14HOU2nd & 5HOU 36(3:05) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 39 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams).BUF +1.7%
Q22:26BUF 17–HOU 14HOU3rd & 2HOU 39(2:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 19-X.Hutchinson (21-D.Igbinosun).BUF +3.2%
Q22:22BUF 17–HOU 14HOU4th & 2HOU 39(2:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.HOU +5.7%
Q22:10BUF 17–HOU 14BUF1st & 10BUF 4(2:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 42 for 38 yards (24-D.Stingley).BUF +9.1%
Q22:00BUF 17–HOU 14BUF1st & 10BUF 42(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to HOU 43 for 15 yards (6-R.Blankenship).BUF +2.5%
Q21:39BUF 23–HOU 14BUF1st & 10HOU 43(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.BUF +10.3%
Q2—BUF 24–HOU 14BUF—HOU 1516-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.BUF +0.1%
Q2—BUF 24–HOU 14HOU—BUF 3516-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 21 yards (83-K.Latu). PENALTY on HOU-36-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.BUF +0.8%
Q21:24BUF 24–HOU 14HOU1st & 10HOU 14(1:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 23 for 9 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).HOU +1.2%
Q21:03BUF 24–HOU 14HOU2nd & 1HOU 23(1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on BUF-47-C.Benford, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play.HOU +2.3%
Q20:58BUF 24–HOU 14HOU1st & 10HOU 44(:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 47 for 9 yards (47-C.Benford; 52-K.Elarms-Orr).HOU +1.7%
Q20:40BUF 24–HOU 14HOU2nd & 1BUF 47(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 12 for 35 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).HOU +4.1%
Q20:31BUF 24–HOU 20HOU1st & 10BUF 12(:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.HOU +6.9%
Q2—BUF 24–HOU 21HOU—BUF 1515-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.HOU +0.1%
Q2—BUF 24–HOU 21BUF—HOU 3515-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 46 for 41 yards (8-C.Stover; 15-K.Fairbairn). PENALTY on BUF-44-J.Andreessen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27.HOU +0.3%
Q20:18BUF 24–HOU 21BUF1st & 10BUF 17(:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore (2-C.Bullock).HOU +1.7%
Q20:10BUF 24–HOU 21BUF2nd & 10BUF 17(:10) 20-F.Gore up the middle to BUF 20 for 3 yards (51-W.Anderson; 98-S.Rankins).BUF +0.2%
Q3—BUF 24–HOU 21HOU—BUF 3516-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 34 for 31 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 55-M.Hoecht).HOU +1.0%
Q314:55BUF 24–HOU 21HOU1st & 10HOU 34(14:55) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to HOU 39 for 5 yards (94-L.Jackson). ** Injury Update: BUF-24-C.Bishop has returned to the game.HOU +0.1%
Q314:19BUF 24–HOU 21HOU2nd & 5HOU 39(14:19) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau).BUF +2.2%
Q313:39BUF 24–HOU 21HOU3rd & 5HOU 39(13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to HOU 45 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht). PENALTY on HOU-32-D.Montgomery, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39 - No Play.BUF +5.0%
Q313:24BUF 24–HOU 21HOU3rd & 20HOU 24(13:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [9-B.Chubb]. HOU-63-E.Brown was injured during the play.BUF +3.0%
Q313:19BUF 24–HOU 21HOU4th & 20HOU 24(13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28.HOU +7.9%
Q313:10BUF 24–HOU 21BUF1st & 10BUF 14(13:10) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 15 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair).HOU +0.3%
Q312:33BUF 24–HOU 21BUF2nd & 9BUF 15(12:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 18 for 3 yards (98-S.Rankins; 6-R.Blankenship).HOU +0.8%
Q312:01BUF 24–HOU 21BUF3rd & 6BUF 18(12:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at BUF 35 for 17 yards.BUF +5.0%
Q311:35BUF 24–HOU 21BUF1st & 10BUF 35(11:35) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 36 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair; 98-S.Rankins).HOU +0.5%
Q310:54BUF 24–HOU 21BUF2nd & 9BUF 36(10:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 46 for 10 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 39-H.To'oTo'o). PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 36 - No Play.HOU +5.2%
Q310:31BUF 24–HOU 21BUF2nd & 19BUF 26(10:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined.HOU +2.0%
Q310:18BUF 24–HOU 21BUF3rd & 19BUF 26(10:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore to BUF 33 for 7 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).HOU +1.8%
Q39:41BUF 24–HOU 21BUF4th & 12BUF 33(9:41) 39-T.Doman punts 63 yards to HOU 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.BUF +6.2%
Q39:26BUF 24–HOU 21HOU1st & 10HOU 4(9:26) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 2 for -2 yards (91-E.Oliver). ** Injury Update: HOU-63-E.Brown has returned to the game.BUF +2.8%
Q38:46BUF 24–HOU 21HOU2nd & 12HOU 2(8:46) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz (15-G.Rousseau).BUF +2.5%
Q38:42BUF 24–HOU 21HOU3rd & 12HOU 2(8:42) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 9 for 7 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 91-E.Oliver). BUF-8-T.Bernard was injured during the play.BUF +1.4%
Q38:10BUF 24–HOU 21HOU4th & 5HOU 9(8:10) 38-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 47, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch to HOU 43 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). HOU-33-J.Hummel was injured during the play.BUF +0.4%
Q37:58BUF 24–HOU 21BUF1st & 10HOU 43(7:58) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 42 for 1 yard (51-W.Anderson).HOU +1.1%
Q37:22BUF 24–HOU 21BUF2nd & 9HOU 42(7:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on HOU-97-M.Edwards, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined.BUF +4.6%
Q37:15BUF 24–HOU 21BUF1st & 10HOU 27(7:15) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 16 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock).BUF +1.7%
Q36:34BUF 24–HOU 21BUF1st & 10HOU 16(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 13 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai).BUF +0.8%
Q35:56BUF 24–HOU 21BUF2nd & 7HOU 13(5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at HOU 18 for -5 yards (sack split by 97-M.Edwards and 51-W.Anderson).HOU +4.4%
Q35:11BUF 24–HOU 21BUF3rd & 12HOU 18(5:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 16 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).HOU +2.2%
Q34:27BUF 27–HOU 21BUF4th & 10HOU 16(4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.BUF +2.2%
Q3—BUF 27–HOU 21HOU—BUF 3516-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 28 for 25 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 44-J.Andreessen).HOU +0.1%
Q34:19BUF 27–HOU 21HOU1st & 10HOU 28(4:19) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left. ** Injury Update: BUF-8-T.Bernard has returned to the game.BUF +1.8%
Q34:13BUF 27–HOU 21HOU2nd & 10HOU 28(4:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 37 for 9 yards (42-D.Williams).HOU +1.8%
Q33:33BUF 27–HOU 21HOU3rd & 1HOU 37(3:33) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 37 for no gain (91-E.Oliver).BUF +3.7%
Q32:50BUF 27–HOU 21HOU4th & 1HOU 37(2:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford; 56-J.Solomon).HOU +5.6%
Q32:08BUF 27–HOU 21HOU1st & 10HOU 39(2:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 48 for 9 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).HOU +1.8%
Q31:35BUF 27–HOU 21HOU2nd & 1HOU 48(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to BUF 31 for 21 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).HOU +4.2%
Q31:12BUF 27–HOU 21HOU1st & 10BUF 31(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins.BUF +2.2%
Q31:07BUF 27–HOU 21HOU2nd & 10BUF 31(1:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 22 for 9 yards (24-C.Bishop).HOU +3.6%
Q30:47BUF 27–HOU 21HOU3rd & 1BUF 22(:47) (No Huddle) 7-C.Stroud left guard to BUF 22 for no gain (42-D.Williams).BUF +4.9%
Q30:04BUF 27–HOU 21HOU4th & 1BUF 22(:04) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to BUF 19 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 90-D.Carter).HOU +7.1%
Q415:00BUF 27–HOU 21HOU1st & 10BUF 19(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 17-J.Wayne to BUF 7 for 12 yards (47-C.Benford).HOU +2.6%
Q414:17BUF 27–HOU 21HOU1st & 7BUF 7(14:17) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to BUF 7 for no gain (96-D.Walker).BUF +0.8%
Q413:39BUF 27–HOU 27HOU2nd & 7BUF 7(13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.HOU +10.7%
Q4—BUF 27–HOU 28HOU—BUF 1515-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.HOU +0.5%
Q4—BUF 27–HOU 28BUF—HOU 3515-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis pushed ob at BUF 34 for 29 yards (11-T.Smith).BUF +2.0%
Q413:29BUF 27–HOU 28BUF1st & 10BUF 34(13:29) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Cook [90-J.Clowney].HOU +2.4%
Q413:23BUF 27–HOU 28BUF2nd & 10BUF 34(13:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 40 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship).HOU +0.4%
Q412:44BUF 27–HOU 28BUF3rd & 4BUF 40(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 20 for 40 yards (2-C.Bullock).BUF +15.3%
Q411:58BUF 27–HOU 28BUF1st & 10HOU 20(11:58) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 17 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).HOU +0.3%
Q411:15BUF 27–HOU 28BUF2nd & 7HOU 17(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at HOU 14 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).HOU +1.9%
Q410:41BUF 27–HOU 28BUF3rd & 4HOU 14(10:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (98-S.Rankins).HOU +5.6%
Q410:36BUF 30–HOU 28BUF4th & 4HOU 14(10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.BUF +1.5%
Q4—BUF 30–HOU 28HOU—BUF 3516-T.Bass kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 7. 11-T.Smith to HOU 35 for 28 yards (37-J.Hancock; 44-J.Andreessen).HOU +2.3%
Q410:26BUF 30–HOU 28HOU1st & 10HOU 35(10:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins.BUF +2.6%
Q410:22BUF 30–HOU 28HOU2nd & 10HOU 35(10:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play.BUF +4.1%
Q410:14BUF 30–HOU 28HOU2nd & 20HOU 25(10:14) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left guard to HOU 35 for 10 yards (8-T.Bernard).HOU +1.0%
Q49:28BUF 30–HOU 28HOU3rd & 10HOU 35(9:28) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at BUF 45 for 20 yards (1-M.Hairston).HOU +11.1%
Q48:49BUF 30–HOU 28HOU1st & 10BUF 45(8:49) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 47 for -2 yards (90-D.Carter).BUF +5.4%
Q48:12BUF 30–HOU 28HOU2nd & 12BUF 47(8:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 41 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford).HOU +0.4%
Q47:30BUF 30–HOU 28HOU3rd & 6BUF 41(7:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford).BUF +4.1%
Q46:48BUF 30–HOU 31HOU4th & 4BUF 39(6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.HOU +10.2%
Q4—BUF 30–HOU 31BUF—HOU 3515-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 20 for 19 yards (54-S.Harsh; 94-D.Robinson).HOU +2.0%
Q46:38BUF 30–HOU 31BUF1st & 10BUF 20(6:38) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 18, and recovers at BUF 18.HOU +5.2%
Q45:56BUF 30–HOU 31BUF2nd & 12BUF 18(5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter).HOU +3.3%
Q45:50BUF 30–HOU 31BUF3rd & 12BUF 18(5:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (55-D.Hunter).HOU +6.4%
Q45:45BUF 30–HOU 31BUF4th & 12BUF 18(5:45) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.HOU +0.2%
Q45:39BUF 30–HOU 31HOU1st & 10HOU 36(5:39) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to HOU 39 for 3 yards (9-B.Chubb; 42-D.Williams).BUF +1.1%
Q44:57BUF 30–HOU 31HOU2nd & 7HOU 39(4:57) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right end to HOU 37 for -2 yards (42-D.Williams, 91-E.Oliver).BUF +6.1%
Q44:10BUF 30–HOU 31HOU3rd & 9HOU 37(4:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 37 for no gain (9-B.Chubb; 24-C.Bishop) [91-E.Oliver].BUF +9.7%
Q43:24BUF 30–HOU 31HOU4th & 9HOU 37(3:24) 38-K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-22-J.Smith.HOU +8.9%
Q43:13BUF 30–HOU 31BUF1st & 10BUF 4(3:13) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley). FUMBLES (24-D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at BUF 19.BUF +4.9%
Q42:34BUF 30–HOU 31BUF1st & 10BUF 19(2:34) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 39-H.To'oTo'o). HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play.BUF +2.5%
Q42:06BUF 30–HOU 31BUF2nd & 3BUF 26(2:06) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook ran ob at BUF 32 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley).BUF +3.3%
Q42:00BUF 30–HOU 31BUF1st & 10BUF 32(2:00) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at HOU 33 for 35 yards (5-J.Pitre).BUF +11.0%
Q41:53BUF 30–HOU 31BUF1st & 10HOU 33(1:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 34 for -1 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).HOU +2.2%
Q41:48BUF 30–HOU 31BUF2nd & 11HOU 34(1:48) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer.HOU +3.9%
Q4—BUF 30–HOU 31——HOU 34Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:48. +0.0%
Q41:41BUF 36–HOU 31BUF3rd & 11HOU 34(1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.BUF +27.7%
Q4—BUF 36–HOU 31BUF—HOU 2TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 0-K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.HOU +4.8%
Q4—BUF 36–HOU 31HOU—BUF 3516-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 26 yards (56-J.Solomon).HOU +0.3%
Q41:31BUF 36–HOU 31HOU1st & 10HOU 29(1:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 47 for 18 yards (23-D.Alford; 91-E.Oliver).HOU +4.9%
Q41:11BUF 36–HOU 31HOU1st & 10HOU 47(1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 24-C.Bishop).HOU +2.2%
Q40:50BUF 36–HOU 31HOU2nd & 2BUF 45(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson.BUF +3.5%
Q40:44BUF 36–HOU 31HOU3rd & 2BUF 45(:44) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 9-B.Chubb). PENALTY on BUF-96-D.Walker, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 39.HOU +9.3%
Q40:39BUF 36–HOU 31HOU1st & 10BUF 34(:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play.BUF +5.1%
Q40:39BUF 36–HOU 31HOU1st & 15BUF 39(:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson [15-G.Rousseau].BUF +3.2%
Q40:35BUF 36–HOU 31HOU2nd & 15BUF 39(:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).HOU +7.8%
Q40:30BUF 36–HOU 31HOU3rd & 3BUF 27(:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).HOU +15.5%
Q4—BUF 36–HOU 31———Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:30. +0.0%
Q4—BUF 36–HOU 31——BUF 27Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:30. +0.0%
Q40:25BUF 36–HOU 31HOU1st & 9BUF 9(:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).BUF +25.9%
Q40:20BUF 36–HOU 31HOU2nd & 18BUF 18(:20) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins.BUF +3.7%
Q4—BUF 36–HOU 31——BUF 18Timeout #3 by HOU at 00:20. +0.0%
Q40:16BUF 36–HOU 31HOU3rd & 18BUF 18(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.BUF +16.3%
Q40:09BUF 36–HOU 31BUF1st & 10BUF 24(:09) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 23 for -1 yards.BUF +1.0%
Q1 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +1.6%
Win probability: BUF 56.8%
BUFHOU 35
15-K.Fairbairn kicks 57 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 8. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 34 for 26 yards (35-J.Hansen; 36-G.Odum).
Q1 14:55 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +2.2%
Win probability: BUF 58.4%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 34
(14:55) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 43 for 9 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q1 14:21 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +0.8%
Win probability: BUF 60.6%
BUF2nd & 1 · BUF 43
(14:21) 68-T.Grable reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at BUF 46 for 3 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q1 13:55 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +2.3%
Win probability: BUF 61.4%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 46
(13:55) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 43 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q1 13:18 · BUF 0–HOU 0
HOU +0.6%
Win probability: HOU 36.3%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 43
(13:18) 7-R.Davis right guard to HOU 40 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q1 12:39 · BUF 0–HOU 0
HOU +0.1%
Win probability: HOU 36.9%
BUF2nd & 7 · HOU 40
(12:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to HOU 36 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q1 12:02 · BUF 0–HOU 0
HOU +4.0%
Win probability: HOU 37.0%
BUF3rd & 3 · HOU 36
(12:02) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 34 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 72-T.Togiai).
Q1 11:18 · BUF 0–HOU 0
HOU +9.9%
Win probability: HOU 41.0%
BUF4th & 1 · HOU 34
(11:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left end to HOU 36 for -2 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
Q1 11:15 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +1.5%
Win probability: BUF 49.1%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 36
(11:15) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 37 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard).
Q1 10:36 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +2.0%
Win probability: BUF 50.6%
HOU2nd & 9 · HOU 37
(10:36) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 37 - No Play.
Q1 10:17 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +2.4%
Win probability: BUF 52.6%
HOU2nd & 14 · HOU 32
(10:17) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 34 for 2 yards (8-T.Bernard; 96-D.Walker).
Q1 9:40 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +9.0%
Win probability: BUF 55.0%
HOU3rd & 12 · HOU 34
(9:40) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at HOU 29 for -5 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-91-E.Oliver at HOU 32.
Q1 9:32 · BUF 0–HOU 0
HOU +0.3%
Win probability: HOU 36.0%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 32
(9:32) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (5-J.Pitre; 6-R.Blankenship).
Q1 8:56 · BUF 0–HOU 0
HOU +4.7%
Win probability: HOU 36.3%
BUF2nd & 6 · HOU 28
(8:56) 17-J.Allen sacked at HOU 34 for -6 yards (90-J.Clowney).
Q1 8:14 · BUF 0–HOU 0
BUF +2.6%
Win probability: BUF 59.0%
BUF3rd & 12 · HOU 34
(8:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman to HOU 33 for 1 yard. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 23 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q1 7:42 · BUF 0–HOU 0
HOU +3.1%
Win probability: HOU 38.5%
BUF4th & 1 · HOU 23
(7:42) (Run formation) PENALTY on BUF, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play.
Q1 7:32 · BUF 3–HOU 0
BUF +3.1%
Win probability: BUF 58.4%
BUF4th & 6 · HOU 28
(7:32) 16-T.Bass 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q1 · BUF 3–HOU 0
BUF +0.2%
Win probability: BUF 61.5%
HOUBUF 35
16-T.Bass kicks 64 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 1. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 23 yards (83-K.Latu; 55-M.Hoecht).
Q1 7:21 · BUF 3–HOU 0
HOU +0.0%
Win probability: HOU 38.3%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 24
(7:21) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (15-G.Rousseau).
Q1 6:43 · BUF 3–HOU 0
HOU +3.0%
Win probability: HOU 38.3%
HOU2nd & 6 · HOU 28
(6:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 12-N.Collins to HOU 37 for 9 yards (8-T.Bernard; 24-C.Bishop).
Q1 6:04 · BUF 3–HOU 0
HOU +0.0%
Win probability: HOU 41.3%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 37
(6:04) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle to HOU 44 for 7 yards (8-T.Bernard; 42-D.Williams).
Q1 5:24 · BUF 3–HOU 0
HOU +4.4%
Win probability: HOU 41.3%
HOU2nd & 3 · HOU 44
(5:24) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 83-M.Klein to BUF 40 for 16 yards (1-M.Hairston).
Q1 4:43 · BUF 3–HOU 0
BUF +0.1%
Win probability: BUF 54.3%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 40
(4:43) 4-W.Marks left guard to BUF 36 for 4 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 42-D.Williams).
Q1 4:03 · BUF 3–HOU 0
HOU +1.5%
Win probability: HOU 45.5%
HOU2nd & 6 · BUF 36
(4:03) 12-N.Collins right end pushed ob at BUF 29 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q1 3:20 · BUF 3–HOU 0
BUF +0.9%
Win probability: BUF 52.9%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 29
(3:20) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left end to BUF 27 for 2 yards (97-G.Gaines; 8-T.Bernard).
Q1 2:37 · BUF 3–HOU 0
BUF +2.4%
Win probability: BUF 53.8%
HOU2nd & 8 · BUF 27
(2:37) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 14-K.Boutte.
Q1 2:30 · BUF 3–HOU 0
HOU +10.1%
Win probability: HOU 43.8%
HOU3rd & 8 · BUF 27
(2:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at BUF 2 for 25 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q1 1:53 · BUF 3–HOU 0
BUF +1.7%
Win probability: BUF 46.2%
HOU1st & 2 · BUF 2
(1:53) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to BUF 1 for 1 yard (8-T.Bernard, 9-B.Chubb).
Q1 1:15 · BUF 3–HOU 0
BUF +3.1%
Win probability: BUF 47.9%
HOU2nd & 1 · BUF 1
(1:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 1 for no gain (96-D.Walker; 42-D.Williams).
Q1 0:37 · BUF 3–HOU 6
HOU +4.7%
Win probability: HOU 49.0%
HOU3rd & 1 · BUF 1
(:37) 32-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · BUF 3–HOU 7
HOU +0.1%
Win probability: HOU 53.7%
HOUBUF 15
15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q1 · BUF 3–HOU 7
BUF +3.1%
Win probability: BUF 46.2%
BUFHOU 35
15-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 38 for 37 yards (22-J.Smith).
Q1 0:25 · BUF 3–HOU 7
BUF +3.4%
Win probability: BUF 49.3%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 38
(:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 43 for 19 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q2 15:00 · BUF 3–HOU 7
HOU +3.3%
Win probability: HOU 47.2%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 43
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right [39-H.To'oTo'o]. PENALTY on BUF-64-O.Torrence, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 43 - No Play.
Q2 14:52 · BUF 3–HOU 7
HOU +2.0%
Win probability: HOU 50.5%
BUF1st & 15 · HOU 48
(14:52) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Kincaid. Penalty on BUF-66-C.McGovern, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q2 14:48 · BUF 3–HOU 7
BUF +7.4%
Win probability: BUF 47.5%
BUF2nd & 15 · HOU 48
(14:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 32 for 16 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 5-J.Pitre).
Q2 14:07 · BUF 3–HOU 7
BUF +1.9%
Win probability: BUF 54.9%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 32
(14:07) 4-J.Cook right end pushed ob at HOU 25 for 7 yards (24-D.Stingley).
Q2 13:32 · BUF 3–HOU 7
BUF +1.7%
Win probability: BUF 56.9%
BUF2nd & 3 · HOU 25
(13:32) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 21 for 4 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q2 12:57 · BUF 9–HOU 7
BUF +6.6%
Win probability: BUF 58.6%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 21
(12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +0.3%
Win probability: BUF 65.1%
BUFHOU 15
16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q2 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +0.1%
Win probability: BUF 65.5%
HOUBUF 35
16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 25 for 22 yards (44-J.Andreessen).
Q2 12:39 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +0.1%
Win probability: BUF 65.6%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 25
(12:39) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 31 for 6 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q2 11:56 · BUF 10–HOU 7
HOU +2.7%
Win probability: HOU 34.3%
HOU2nd & 4 · HOU 31
(11:56) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 35 for 4 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q2 11:15 · BUF 10–HOU 7
HOU +1.2%
Win probability: HOU 37.0%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 35
(11:15) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins to HOU 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 47-C.Benford). PENALTY on BUF-23-D.Alford, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play.
Q2 10:51 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +1.9%
Win probability: BUF 61.8%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 40
(10:51) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz [15-G.Rousseau].
Q2 10:47 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +3.2%
Win probability: BUF 63.7%
HOU2nd & 10 · HOU 40
(10:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to HOU 38 for -2 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q2 10:06 · BUF 10–HOU 7
HOU +6.6%
Win probability: HOU 33.1%
HOU3rd & 12 · HOU 38
(10:06) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to BUF 47 for 15 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q2 9:18 · BUF 10–HOU 7
HOU +0.6%
Win probability: HOU 39.7%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 47
(9:18) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to BUF 41 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht).
Q2 8:41 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +0.0%
Win probability: BUF 59.7%
HOU2nd & 4 · BUF 41
(8:41) 32-D.Montgomery right end to BUF 38 for 3 yards (8-T.Bernard; 1-M.Hairston).
Q2 8:01 · BUF 10–HOU 7
HOU +3.5%
Win probability: HOU 40.3%
HOU3rd & 1 · BUF 38
(8:01) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to BUF 36 for 2 yards (97-G.Gaines).
Q2 7:21 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +2.0%
Win probability: BUF 56.2%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 36
(7:21) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [15-G.Rousseau].
Q2 · BUF 10–HOU 7
+0.0%
BUF 36
Timeout #1 by HOU at 07:21.
Q2 7:16 · BUF 10–HOU 7
HOU +4.4%
Win probability: HOU 41.9%
HOU2nd & 10 · BUF 36
(7:16) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 24 for 12 yards (24-C.Bishop; 23-D.Alford).
Q2 6:33 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +4.5%
Win probability: BUF 53.7%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 24
(6:33) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 8-C.Stover to BUF 26 for -2 yards (8-T.Bernard) [9-B.Chubb].
Q2 5:49 · BUF 10–HOU 7
BUF +0.5%
Win probability: BUF 58.2%
HOU2nd & 12 · BUF 26
(5:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 23 for 3 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson; 96-D.Walker).
Q2 5:03 · BUF 10–HOU 7
HOU +4.8%
Win probability: HOU 41.3%
HOU3rd & 9 · BUF 23
(5:03) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on BUF-3-D.Hamlin, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 23 - No Play.
Q2 4:53 · BUF 10–HOU 13
HOU +8.3%
Win probability: HOU 46.2%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 18
(4:53) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · BUF 10–HOU 14
HOU +0.1%
Win probability: HOU 54.5%
HOUBUF 15
15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q2 · BUF 10–HOU 14
BUF +2.0%
Win probability: BUF 45.4%
BUFHOU 35
15-K.Fairbairn kicks 65 yards from HOU 35 to end zone, Touchback to the BUF 35.
Q2 4:48 · BUF 10–HOU 14
BUF +1.9%
Win probability: BUF 47.4%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 35
(4:48) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 2-D.Moore to HOU 47 for 18 yards (2-C.Bullock; 3-K.Lassiter).
Q2 4:13 · BUF 10–HOU 14
BUF +17.6%
Win probability: BUF 49.3%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 47
(4:13) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at HOU 47 - No Play.
Q2 4:05 · BUF 10–HOU 14
HOU +1.5%
Win probability: HOU 33.2%
BUF1st & 1 · HOU 1
(4:05) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (5-J.Pitre).
Q2 4:02 · BUF 16–HOU 14
BUF +1.0%
Win probability: BUF 65.3%
BUF2nd & 1 · HOU 1
(4:02) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · BUF 17–HOU 14
BUF +0.3%
Win probability: BUF 66.3%
BUFHOU 15
16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q2 · BUF 17–HOU 14
BUF +0.2%
Win probability: BUF 66.6%
HOUBUF 35
16-T.Bass kicks 65 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 0. 11-T.Smith to HOU 26 for 26 yards (99-T.Parker; 56-J.Solomon).
Q2 3:51 · BUF 17–HOU 14
HOU +0.7%
Win probability: HOU 33.2%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 26
(3:51) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 17-J.Wayne pushed ob at HOU 33 for 7 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-21-D.Igbinosun, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 26 - No Play.
Q2 3:33 · BUF 17–HOU 14
HOU +3.2%
Win probability: HOU 33.9%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 31
(3:33) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to HOU 36 for 5 yards (99-T.Parker; 24-C.Bishop). BUF-24-C.Bishop was injured during the play.
Q2 3:05 · BUF 17–HOU 14
BUF +1.7%
Win probability: BUF 62.9%
HOU2nd & 5 · HOU 36
(3:05) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 39 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q2 2:26 · BUF 17–HOU 14
BUF +3.2%
Win probability: BUF 64.6%
HOU3rd & 2 · HOU 39
(2:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 19-X.Hutchinson (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q2 2:22 · BUF 17–HOU 14
HOU +5.7%
Win probability: HOU 32.3%
HOU4th & 2 · HOU 39
(2:22) 38-K.Kroeger punts 57 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-11-T.Smith.
Q2 2:10 · BUF 17–HOU 14
BUF +9.1%
Win probability: BUF 62.0%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 4
(2:10) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 42 for 38 yards (24-D.Stingley).
Q2 2:00 · BUF 17–HOU 14
BUF +2.5%
Win probability: BUF 71.1%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 42
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to HOU 43 for 15 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q2 1:39 · BUF 23–HOU 14
BUF +10.3%
Win probability: BUF 73.6%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 43
(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · BUF 24–HOU 14
BUF +0.1%
Win probability: BUF 83.9%
BUFHOU 15
16-T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q2 · BUF 24–HOU 14
BUF +0.8%
Win probability: BUF 84.0%
HOUBUF 35
16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 21 yards (83-K.Latu). PENALTY on HOU-36-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 24.
Q2 1:24 · BUF 24–HOU 14
HOU +1.2%
Win probability: HOU 15.2%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 14
(1:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 23 for 9 yards (52-K.Elarms-Orr; 22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q2 1:03 · BUF 24–HOU 14
HOU +2.3%
Win probability: HOU 16.4%
HOU2nd & 1 · HOU 23
(1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins. PENALTY on BUF-47-C.Benford, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at HOU 23 - No Play.
Q2 0:58 · BUF 24–HOU 14
HOU +1.7%
Win probability: HOU 18.8%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 44
(:58) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 19-X.Hutchinson to BUF 47 for 9 yards (47-C.Benford; 52-K.Elarms-Orr).
Q2 0:40 · BUF 24–HOU 14
HOU +4.1%
Win probability: HOU 20.4%
HOU2nd & 1 · BUF 47
(:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 12 for 35 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q2 0:31 · BUF 24–HOU 20
HOU +6.9%
Win probability: HOU 24.5%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 12
(:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +0.1%
Win probability: HOU 31.4%
HOUBUF 15
15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q2 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +0.3%
Win probability: HOU 31.5%
BUFHOU 35
15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis to BUF 46 for 41 yards (8-C.Stover; 15-K.Fairbairn). PENALTY on BUF-44-J.Andreessen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 27.
Q2 0:18 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +1.7%
Win probability: HOU 31.7%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 17
(:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore (2-C.Bullock).
Q2 0:10 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +0.2%
Win probability: BUF 66.6%
BUF2nd & 10 · BUF 17
(:10) 20-F.Gore up the middle to BUF 20 for 3 yards (51-W.Anderson; 98-S.Rankins).
Q3 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +1.0%
Win probability: HOU 33.2%
HOUBUF 35
16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 34 for 31 yards (21-D.Igbinosun; 55-M.Hoecht).
Q3 14:55 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +0.1%
Win probability: HOU 34.2%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 34
(14:55) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to HOU 39 for 5 yards (94-L.Jackson). ** Injury Update: BUF-24-C.Bishop has returned to the game.
Q3 14:19 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +2.2%
Win probability: BUF 65.7%
HOU2nd & 5 · HOU 39
(14:19) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for no gain (15-G.Rousseau).
Q3 13:39 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +5.0%
Win probability: BUF 67.9%
HOU3rd & 5 · HOU 39
(13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to HOU 45 for 6 yards (55-M.Hoecht). PENALTY on HOU-32-D.Montgomery, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 39 - No Play.
Q3 13:24 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +3.0%
Win probability: BUF 72.9%
HOU3rd & 20 · HOU 24
(13:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz [9-B.Chubb]. HOU-63-E.Brown was injured during the play.
Q3 13:19 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +7.9%
Win probability: HOU 24.0%
HOU4th & 20 · HOU 24
(13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 48 yards to BUF 28, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 36 for 8 yards (8-C.Stover; 30-W.Woodaz). PENALTY on BUF-28-S.Franklin, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at BUF 28.
Q3 13:10 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +0.3%
Win probability: HOU 31.9%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 14
(13:10) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 15 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q3 12:33 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +0.8%
Win probability: HOU 32.1%
BUF2nd & 9 · BUF 15
(12:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 18 for 3 yards (98-S.Rankins; 6-R.Blankenship).
Q3 12:01 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +5.0%
Win probability: BUF 67.0%
BUF3rd & 6 · BUF 18
(12:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 2-D.Moore ran ob at BUF 35 for 17 yards.
Q3 11:35 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +0.5%
Win probability: HOU 27.9%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 35
(11:35) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 36 for 1 yard (0-A.Al-Shaair; 98-S.Rankins).
Q3 10:54 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +5.2%
Win probability: HOU 28.4%
BUF2nd & 9 · BUF 36
(10:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to BUF 46 for 10 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 39-H.To'oTo'o). PENALTY on BUF-70-A.Anderson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 36 - No Play.
Q3 10:31 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +2.0%
Win probability: HOU 33.6%
BUF2nd & 19 · BUF 26
(10:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left. Penalty on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q3 10:18 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +1.8%
Win probability: HOU 35.6%
BUF3rd & 19 · BUF 26
(10:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 2-D.Moore to BUF 33 for 7 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
Q3 9:41 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +6.2%
Win probability: BUF 62.7%
BUF4th & 12 · BUF 33
(9:41) 39-T.Doman punts 63 yards to HOU 4, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.
Q3 9:26 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +2.8%
Win probability: BUF 68.8%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 4
(9:26) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 2 for -2 yards (91-E.Oliver). ** Injury Update: HOU-63-E.Brown has returned to the game.
Q3 8:46 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +2.5%
Win probability: BUF 71.6%
HOU2nd & 12 · HOU 2
(8:46) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 86-D.Schultz (15-G.Rousseau).
Q3 8:42 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +1.4%
Win probability: BUF 74.1%
HOU3rd & 12 · HOU 2
(8:42) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 9 for 7 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 91-E.Oliver). BUF-8-T.Bernard was injured during the play.
Q3 8:10 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +0.4%
Win probability: BUF 75.5%
HOU4th & 5 · HOU 9
(8:10) 38-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 47, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-G.Dortch to HOU 43 for 10 yards (6-R.Blankenship; 35-J.Hansen). HOU-33-J.Hummel was injured during the play.
Q3 7:58 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +1.1%
Win probability: HOU 24.1%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 43
(7:58) 4-J.Cook left guard to HOU 42 for 1 yard (51-W.Anderson).
Q3 7:22 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +4.6%
Win probability: BUF 74.8%
BUF2nd & 9 · HOU 42
(7:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 2-D.Moore. PENALTY on HOU-97-M.Edwards, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 42 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-3-K.Lassiter, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q3 7:15 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +1.7%
Win probability: BUF 79.4%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 27
(7:15) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 16 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q3 6:34 · BUF 24–HOU 21
BUF +0.8%
Win probability: BUF 81.1%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 16
(6:34) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 13 for 3 yards (72-T.Togiai).
Q3 5:56 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +4.4%
Win probability: HOU 18.1%
BUF2nd & 7 · HOU 13
(5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at HOU 18 for -5 yards (sack split by 97-M.Edwards and 51-W.Anderson).
Q3 5:11 · BUF 24–HOU 21
HOU +2.2%
Win probability: HOU 22.5%
BUF3rd & 12 · HOU 18
(5:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir to HOU 16 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q3 4:27 · BUF 27–HOU 21
BUF +2.2%
Win probability: BUF 75.3%
BUF4th & 10 · HOU 16
(4:27) 16-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q3 · BUF 27–HOU 21
HOU +0.1%
Win probability: HOU 22.5%
HOUBUF 35
16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 4-W.Marks to HOU 28 for 25 yards (55-M.Hoecht; 44-J.Andreessen).
Q3 4:19 · BUF 27–HOU 21
BUF +1.8%
Win probability: BUF 77.4%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 28
(4:19) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left. ** Injury Update: BUF-8-T.Bernard has returned to the game.
Q3 4:13 · BUF 27–HOU 21
HOU +1.8%
Win probability: HOU 20.8%
HOU2nd & 10 · HOU 28
(4:13) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to HOU 37 for 9 yards (42-D.Williams).
Q3 3:33 · BUF 27–HOU 21
BUF +3.7%
Win probability: BUF 77.3%
HOU3rd & 1 · HOU 37
(3:33) 32-D.Montgomery right guard to HOU 37 for no gain (91-E.Oliver).
Q3 2:50 · BUF 27–HOU 21
HOU +5.6%
Win probability: HOU 19.0%
HOU4th & 1 · HOU 37
(2:50) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to HOU 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford; 56-J.Solomon).
Q3 2:08 · BUF 27–HOU 21
HOU +1.8%
Win probability: HOU 24.6%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 39
(2:08) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to HOU 48 for 9 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
Q3 1:35 · BUF 27–HOU 21
HOU +4.2%
Win probability: HOU 26.4%
HOU2nd & 1 · HOU 48
(1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 14-K.Boutte to BUF 31 for 21 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q3 1:12 · BUF 27–HOU 21
BUF +2.2%
Win probability: BUF 69.4%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 31
(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins.
Q3 1:07 · BUF 27–HOU 21
HOU +3.6%
Win probability: HOU 28.4%
HOU2nd & 10 · BUF 31
(1:07) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 22 for 9 yards (24-C.Bishop).
Q3 0:47 · BUF 27–HOU 21
BUF +4.9%
Win probability: BUF 68.0%
HOU3rd & 1 · BUF 22
(:47) (No Huddle) 7-C.Stroud left guard to BUF 22 for no gain (42-D.Williams).
Q3 0:04 · BUF 27–HOU 21
HOU +7.1%
Win probability: HOU 27.1%
HOU4th & 1 · BUF 22
(:04) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 4-W.Marks right guard to BUF 19 for 3 yards (42-D.Williams; 90-D.Carter).
Q4 15:00 · BUF 27–HOU 21
HOU +2.6%
Win probability: HOU 34.2%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 19
(15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 17-J.Wayne to BUF 7 for 12 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q4 14:17 · BUF 27–HOU 21
BUF +0.8%
Win probability: BUF 63.2%
HOU1st & 7 · BUF 7
(14:17) (Shotgun) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to BUF 7 for no gain (96-D.Walker).
Q4 13:39 · BUF 27–HOU 27
HOU +10.7%
Win probability: HOU 36.0%
HOU2nd & 7 · BUF 7
(13:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · BUF 27–HOU 28
HOU +0.5%
Win probability: HOU 46.7%
HOUBUF 15
15-K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q4 · BUF 27–HOU 28
BUF +2.0%
Win probability: BUF 52.8%
BUFHOU 35
15-K.Fairbairn kicks 60 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 5. 7-R.Davis pushed ob at BUF 34 for 29 yards (11-T.Smith).
Q4 13:29 · BUF 27–HOU 28
HOU +2.4%
Win probability: HOU 45.2%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 34
(13:29) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Cook [90-J.Clowney].
Q4 13:23 · BUF 27–HOU 28
HOU +0.4%
Win probability: HOU 47.6%
BUF2nd & 10 · BUF 34
(13:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 40 for 6 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
Q4 12:44 · BUF 27–HOU 28
BUF +15.3%
Win probability: BUF 52.0%
BUF3rd & 4 · BUF 40
(12:44) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid to HOU 20 for 40 yards (2-C.Bullock).
Q4 11:58 · BUF 27–HOU 28
HOU +0.3%
Win probability: HOU 32.7%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 20
(11:58) 4-J.Cook right guard to HOU 17 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q4 11:15 · BUF 27–HOU 28
HOU +1.9%
Win probability: HOU 32.9%
BUF2nd & 7 · HOU 17
(11:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook pushed ob at HOU 14 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q4 10:41 · BUF 27–HOU 28
HOU +5.6%
Win probability: HOU 34.9%
BUF3rd & 4 · HOU 14
(10:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (98-S.Rankins).
Q4 10:36 · BUF 30–HOU 28
BUF +1.5%
Win probability: BUF 59.5%
BUF4th & 4 · HOU 14
(10:36) 16-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
Q4 · BUF 30–HOU 28
HOU +2.3%
Win probability: HOU 39.0%
HOUBUF 35
16-T.Bass kicks 58 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 7. 11-T.Smith to HOU 35 for 28 yards (37-J.Hancock; 44-J.Andreessen).
Q4 10:26 · BUF 30–HOU 28
BUF +2.6%
Win probability: BUF 58.8%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 35
(10:26) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep left to 12-N.Collins.
Q4 10:22 · BUF 30–HOU 28
BUF +4.1%
Win probability: BUF 61.4%
HOU2nd & 10 · HOU 35
(10:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 35 - No Play.
Q4 10:14 · BUF 30–HOU 28
HOU +1.0%
Win probability: HOU 34.5%
HOU2nd & 20 · HOU 25
(10:14) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left guard to HOU 35 for 10 yards (8-T.Bernard).
Q4 9:28 · BUF 30–HOU 28
HOU +11.1%
Win probability: HOU 35.5%
HOU3rd & 10 · HOU 35
(9:28) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 19-X.Hutchinson pushed ob at BUF 45 for 20 yards (1-M.Hairston).
Q4 8:49 · BUF 30–HOU 28
BUF +5.4%
Win probability: BUF 53.4%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 45
(8:49) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 47 for -2 yards (90-D.Carter).
Q4 8:12 · BUF 30–HOU 28
HOU +0.4%
Win probability: HOU 41.3%
HOU2nd & 12 · BUF 47
(8:12) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 41 for 6 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q4 7:30 · BUF 30–HOU 28
BUF +4.1%
Win probability: BUF 58.3%
HOU3rd & 6 · BUF 41
(7:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 39 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford).
Q4 6:48 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +10.2%
Win probability: HOU 37.6%
HOU4th & 4 · BUF 39
(6:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
Q4 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +2.0%
Win probability: HOU 47.8%
BUFHOU 35
15-K.Fairbairn kicks 64 yards from HOU 35 to BUF 1. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 20 for 19 yards (54-S.Harsh; 94-D.Robinson).
Q4 6:38 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +5.2%
Win probability: HOU 49.8%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 20
(6:38) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 18, and recovers at BUF 18.
Q4 5:56 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +3.3%
Win probability: HOU 55.0%
BUF2nd & 12 · BUF 18
(5:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 2-D.Moore (3-K.Lassiter).
Q4 5:50 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +6.4%
Win probability: HOU 58.4%
BUF3rd & 12 · BUF 18
(5:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (55-D.Hunter).
Q4 5:45 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +0.2%
Win probability: HOU 64.8%
BUF4th & 12 · BUF 18
(5:45) 39-T.Doman punts 46 yards to HOU 36, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.
Q4 5:39 · BUF 30–HOU 31
BUF +1.1%
Win probability: BUF 35.0%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 36
(5:39) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to HOU 39 for 3 yards (9-B.Chubb; 42-D.Williams).
Q4 4:57 · BUF 30–HOU 31
BUF +6.1%
Win probability: BUF 36.1%
HOU2nd & 7 · HOU 39
(4:57) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right end to HOU 37 for -2 yards (42-D.Williams, 91-E.Oliver).
Q4 4:10 · BUF 30–HOU 31
BUF +9.7%
Win probability: BUF 42.3%
HOU3rd & 9 · HOU 37
(4:10) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 37 for no gain (9-B.Chubb; 24-C.Bishop) [91-E.Oliver].
Q4 3:24 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +8.9%
Win probability: HOU 48.0%
HOU4th & 9 · HOU 37
(3:24) 38-K.Kroeger punts 59 yards to BUF 4, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-22-J.Smith.
Q4 3:13 · BUF 30–HOU 31
BUF +4.9%
Win probability: BUF 43.0%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 4
(3:13) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 16 for 12 yards (24-D.Stingley). FUMBLES (24-D.Stingley), recovered by BUF-64-O.Torrence at BUF 19.
Q4 2:34 · BUF 30–HOU 31
BUF +2.5%
Win probability: BUF 47.9%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 19
(2:34) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 26 for 7 yards (3-K.Lassiter; 39-H.To'oTo'o). HOU-39-H.To'oTo'o was injured during the play.
Q4 2:06 · BUF 30–HOU 31
BUF +3.3%
Win probability: BUF 50.4%
BUF2nd & 3 · BUF 26
(2:06) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook ran ob at BUF 32 for 6 yards (24-D.Stingley).
Q4 2:00 · BUF 30–HOU 31
BUF +11.0%
Win probability: BUF 53.6%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 32
(2:00) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid pushed ob at HOU 33 for 35 yards (5-J.Pitre).
Q4 1:53 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +2.2%
Win probability: HOU 35.4%
BUF1st & 10 · HOU 33
(1:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle to HOU 34 for -1 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
Q4 1:48 · BUF 30–HOU 31
HOU +3.9%
Win probability: HOU 37.6%
BUF2nd & 11 · HOU 34
(1:48) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 5-J.Palmer.
Q4 · BUF 30–HOU 31
+0.0%
HOU 34
Timeout #1 by HOU at 01:48.
Q4 1:41 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +27.7%
Win probability: BUF 58.5%
BUF3rd & 11 · HOU 34
(1:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 5-J.Palmer for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · BUF 36–HOU 31
HOU +4.8%
Win probability: HOU 13.8%
BUFHOU 2
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 17-J.Allen pass to 0-K.Coleman is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 · BUF 36–HOU 31
HOU +0.3%
Win probability: HOU 18.6%
HOUBUF 35
16-T.Bass kicks 62 yards from BUF 35 to HOU 3. 13-J.Noel to HOU 29 for 26 yards (56-J.Solomon).
Q4 1:31 · BUF 36–HOU 31
HOU +4.9%
Win probability: HOU 18.9%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 29
(1:31) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 47 for 18 yards (23-D.Alford; 91-E.Oliver).
Q4 1:11 · BUF 36–HOU 31
HOU +2.2%
Win probability: HOU 23.9%
HOU1st & 10 · HOU 47
(1:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 24-C.Bishop).
Q4 0:50 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +3.5%
Win probability: BUF 73.9%
HOU2nd & 2 · BUF 45
(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson.
Q4 0:44 · BUF 36–HOU 31
HOU +9.3%
Win probability: HOU 22.6%
HOU3rd & 2 · BUF 45
(:44) (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 9-B.Chubb). PENALTY on BUF-96-D.Walker, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 39.
Q4 0:39 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +5.1%
Win probability: BUF 68.1%
HOU1st & 10 · BUF 34
(:39) (Shotgun) PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play.
Q4 0:39 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +3.2%
Win probability: BUF 73.2%
HOU1st & 15 · BUF 39
(:39) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson [15-G.Rousseau].
Q4 0:35 · BUF 36–HOU 31
HOU +7.8%
Win probability: HOU 23.6%
HOU2nd & 15 · BUF 39
(:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q4 0:30 · BUF 36–HOU 31
HOU +15.5%
Win probability: HOU 31.3%
HOU3rd & 3 · BUF 27
(:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
Q4 · BUF 36–HOU 31
+0.0%
Timeout #2 by HOU at 00:30.
Q4 · BUF 36–HOU 31
+0.0%
BUF 27
Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:30.
Q4 0:25 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +25.9%
Win probability: BUF 53.1%
HOU1st & 9 · BUF 9
(:25) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).
Q4 0:20 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +3.7%
Win probability: BUF 79.0%
HOU2nd & 18 · BUF 18
(:20) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins.
Q4 · BUF 36–HOU 31
+0.0%
BUF 18
Timeout #3 by HOU at 00:20.
Q4 0:16 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +16.3%
Win probability: BUF 82.7%
HOU3rd & 18 · BUF 18
(:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.
Q4 0:09 · BUF 36–HOU 31
BUF +1.0%
Win probability: BUF 99.0%
BUF1st & 10 · BUF 24
(:09) 17-J.Allen kneels to BUF 23 for -1 yards.